Colorado Honestly, should I change my ski vaca plans due to lack of snow but will lose money

[Mike King]

When life gives you lemons, make lemonade. T-ride is one of the most beautiful places in the US. Look for what else you can do, like visit Mesa Verde, Ridgeway, etc. you can still have the trip of a lifetime, but TOAL’s are rarely what you thought they would be when you started them. Have an open mind and you will find something wonderful and unexpected.

Mike

 

[François Pugh]

If you've booked somewhere where they have sufficient vertical and steep runs, then go. Just decide whether to bring your deep snow skis or your speed skis. It's all good!

 

[Goose]

I can appreciate the slogans and also the glass half full/half empty philosophies. You got what you get I understand and you the most of it course. But you can still be disappointed when you paid and planned for an A/B and even finding a C will do ok, but if it appears things might be a D its ok to consider other alternative if available to you.. I mean you don't do these things for the D. And if you can change (if reasonable and practical and worthy enough for you to do so) to try to eliminate the D and get closer to the A as possible then why not? I don't think that would make anyone a pessimist. I think its just smart if its reasonably possible.

Ive had the rainiest vacations in the past while the intent was sunshine and white sand beaches and even Disney. What can ya do? You deal with it and make the best of it. But If you have a good enough idea for what lies ahead and if changing things is reasonable, practical, and also works, then why wouldn't you? Its the same thing here with this winter vacation. Its early yet but certainly can be concerned or at least getting close enough to soon be a concern. Doesn't make anyone a pessimist to make a change towards a better grade. Ok once all said and done and no choice is left, then yes you take what you got, deal with it, and make the best enjoyment of it. If I were soon leaving for another Caribbean vaca and found the poorest weather was expected for too much of that trip, guess what? Id be considering alternate plans if they were available and practical and they worked for me. Why wouldn't I? Now in this case I know its a bit early yet but soon enough its not going to be early anymore and if things don't begin to look up why shouldn't I then begin to then consider something different? If its practical and reasonable enough for me to do so I think id be foolish not to then consider shooting for something to get closer to that intended A or B. That's not being pessimistic imo but is trying to get the most out of your efforts and resources of time and money. Nothing wrong with that. Honestly right now it would probably be a hasty decision that may not work at all and can even backfire and that's certainly an understandable piece of advice. We'll see what happens through January. That's all I should do for now.

 

[Ken_R]

I can appreciate the slogans and also the glass half full/half empty philosophies. You got what you get I understand and you the most of it course. But you can still be disappointed when you paid and planned for an A/B and even finding a C will do ok, but if it appears things might be a D its ok to consider other alternative if available to you.. I mean you don't do these things for the D. And if you can change (if reasonable and practical and worthy enough for you to do so) to try to eliminate the D and get closer to the A as possible then why not? I don't think that would make anyone a pessimist. I think its just smart if its reasonably possible.

Ive had the rainiest vacations in the past while the intent was sunshine and white sand beaches and even Disney. What can ya do? You deal with it and make the best of it. But If you have a good enough idea for what lies ahead and if changing things is reasonable, practical, and also works, then why wouldn't you? Its the same thing here with this winter vacation. Its early yet but certainly can be concerned or at least getting close enough to soon be a concern. Doesn't make anyone a pessimist to make a change towards a better grade. Ok once all said and done and no choice is left, then yes you take what you got, deal with it, and make the best enjoyment of it. If I were soon leaving for another Caribbean vaca and found the poorest weather was expected for too much of that trip, guess what? Id be considering alternate plans if they were available and practical and they worked for me. Why wouldn't I? Now in this case I know its a bit early yet but soon enough its not going to be early anymore and if things don't begin to look up why shouldn't I then begin to then consider something different? If its practical and reasonable enough for me to do so I think id be foolish not to then consider shooting for something to get closer to that intended A or B. That's not being pessimistic imo but is trying to get the most out of your efforts and resources of time and money. Nothing wrong with that. Honestly right now it would probably be a hasty decision that may not work at all and can even backfire and that's certainly an understandable piece of advice. We'll see what happens through January. That's all I should do for now.

@TonyC Can point you in the right direction in regards to where to go. The winter pattern is pretty much set right now and Telluride is just not favored. In spring things might change but man, you are just going at it the wrong way if you want powder. As it has been suggested last minute trips are the best bet when wanting good snow. If you must plan in advance look at resorts that are 100% open right now or close to that. That about guarantees that coverage will be superb when you get there.

 

[tball]

@Goose you have nothing to worry about based on your post back in this thread:

To be honest we will be staying mostly on piste. My kids (older now) are intermediate at best and my days of charging hard down steep bumps are past me but for only small spurts nowadays. And besides except for a couple trips to the Austrian alps many years ago (the 80's) my skiing has all been east coast. So im more than happy skiing groomers mid to expert and carving in a more relaxed style vs my younger days. The body just doesn't take hard charging the way it use for too long...lol. but Ill be doing my share. But im also looking forward to the views and scenery of the place as well.

All of the on-piste runs at Telluride will be open in March. No doubt about it... OK, 99.9% sure.

Most, if not all, the steep bump runs will be open. In a bad year, they are just going to be rockier than they would in a good year.

If it turns out to be a horrible year, It's pretty safe to say you won't want to ski most everything that is not open anyway.

 

[Wade]

I’m heading to Snowbird with my family in mid February. I just checked, and they have 20 runs open out of 179.

Even if it continues to be a terrible snow year, there’s going to be enough open by then that I’ll figure out to have a good time. And the upside is that what happens over the next 7 weeks has very little to do white what happened in the last 7 weeks, so it very well may be great.

 

[Goose]

@TonyC Can point you in the right direction in regards to where to go. The winter pattern is pretty much set right now and Telluride is just not favored. In spring things might change but man, you are just going at it the wrong way if you want powder. As it has been suggested last minute trips are the best bet when wanting good snow. If you must plan in advance look at resorts that are 100% open right now or close to that. That about guarantees that coverage will be superb when you get there.

I don't need to have substantial amounts of fresh powder and honestly that's kind of a lucky to hit thing anyway. Booking vacations is not something one normally waits to do last minute. Most families have a need to plan these things in advance and there are many reasons why that's something which is done that way. So I don't feel I went about anything the wrong way.

But your post is one of which and exactly why as for what makes me concerned. I fear your opinion holds some truth as for T this year. Certainly a terrible start or can even say hasn't even yet started which is even worse than a terrible start. With nothing much on the near horizon and also an expected weather pattern not at all to be favorable. Hence my worrisome mindset right now.

 

[Lofcaudio]

Tomorrow is my last day to cancel reservations at Telluride for a trip that begins January 28th...only a month away.

I think I am going to stick with them and just adjust my expectations. My group consists of what I would describe as being "strong intermediates", so we're not going to be hitting up Gold Hill or anything crazy. However, right now I'm concerned that none of the frontside runs will be open as there is just no snow on the ground or in the forecast.

 

[Goose]

@TonyC Can point you in the right direction in regards to where to go. The winter pattern is pretty much set right now and Telluride is just not favored. In spring things might change but man, you are just going at it the wrong way if you want powder. As it has been suggested last minute trips are the best bet when wanting good snow. If you must plan in advance look at resorts that are 100% open right now or close to that. That about guarantees that coverage will be superb when you get there.

I don't need to have substantial amounts of fresh powder and honestly that's kind of a lucky to hit thing anyway. Booking vacations is not something one normally waits to do last minute. Most families have a need to plan these things in advance and there are many reasons why that's something which is done that way. So I don't feel I went about anything the wrong way.

But your post is one of which and exactly why as for what makes me concerned. I fear your opinion holds some truth as for T this year. Certainly a terrible start or can even say hasn't even yet started which is even worse than a terrible start. With nothing much on the near horizon and also an expected weather pattern not at all to be favorable. Hence my worrisome mindset right now.

@Goose you have nothing to worry about based on your post back in this thread:


All of the on-piste runs at Telluride will be open in March. No doubt about it... OK, 99.9% sure.

Most, if not all, the steep bump runs will be open. In a bad year, they are just going to be rockier than they would in a good year.

If it turns out to be a horrible year, It's pretty safe to say you won't want to ski most everything that is not open anyway.

well, I hear ya and certainly based on what I mentioned is why you mention what you have. But I will look to venture some especially some bowls they have there as well as some advanced ungroomed terrain. I said I wasn't what I use to be but Im not dead..lol I hope And I still enjoy different things when my mojo is up to it..lol
To be fair much of what I mention is also related to the icier conditions of the east and when conditions over here are good and not icier then the more terrain in general I do gravitate towards to ski. But yes Id agree that by then we should find enough skiing to keep us happy enough..

 

[David Chaus]

fwiw W/BC was a serious consideration of mine for this trip and one of my original choices. I thought very long and hard and read reviews after reviews and spent a long time before making my choice with many different thoughts involved. Travel time involved, length of stay, time of year and average weather and conditions at that time, diversity of terrain, spring break crowds, town/community, scenery, etc, etc, etc, and T simply came out on top (via all things considered). Not that T met every criteria greatly nor better than other places but just that it didn't fall real short at any of them and seeming to satisfy most my requests most constantly across the board and hence became my choice. Other places may have excelled in answering some criteria yet seemed to then slack a bit in meeting some of it. And so that's how T won my choice.

One takeaway that I see from all this, is to avoid having your expectations be based on reviews or stats. You made your choice based on other’s assessments and rankings rather than from your own first-hand knowledge and experience. I’m not saying you did anything wrong or foolish; you had to go with what information you had available.

Nonetheless, I sometimes think one simply needs to go where one goes, even pick at random sometimes, and stop agonizing over all the potential choices. What this trip will do is provide you invaluable experince with what the traveling is like, what it feels like to be there, what potential the ski resort has even if it doesn’t deliver all the goods while you are there, and that will tell you if you want to return. My guess, and my sincerest wish for you, is that you have many more trips in your future to enjoy, and that this one doesn’t carry the burden of being the one and only big trip, or TOAL. The only way to have a TOAL is to have many trips.

 

[Seldomski]

I been participating in the "Bitch about the weather thread" with some sarcasm and fun yet also serious bitching.

That thread is like mind cancer for destination skiing. I watched it prior to cancelling a trip to Vail in early December and instead went to Kirkwood/Heavenly a week later. In retrospect, I don't think the conditions at Heavenly/Kirkwood were significantly better. I didn't lose any money in the trade and got to see a new (to me) ski area and take less vacation days to do it. I have been to Vail many times recently but not to Reno area, which contributed to the decision to cancel as well.

My advice - stop watching the complaint thread! I have forced myself to stop looking at it. I have some other trips planned and would prefer to remain ignorant. Skiing bad conditions is better than not skiing imho. I have met people on the slopes who are local who rarely ski now since they cherry pick conditions. In waiting for the perfect day, they miss out on a plethora of good/decent days.

We only are doing a sat to thurs trip. Time constraints (similar to why a winter west trip never worked all these years) has somewhat unfortunately made for a short week. Minus the travel days we only have 4 full free full days and I want them to be pretty and snow covered town and mountains.

Your trip is pretty short, so I wouldn't worry about getting bored with whatever there is to ski in 4 days. If conditions are mediocre after day 1, adjust your start/stop times to allow for more partying at night or soaking in the vibe at the base area. Start at 10/11am, get off the mountain by 3 pm. Take a ski school lesson or get a mountain tour to find the best areas that are open. Go to the spa. Is there a brewery or distillery tour in the area? Snowmobile, tubing, sleigh rides, etc. Other good suggestion in this thread regarding splitting time between Crested Butte and Telluride. Seems like a lot of work to move hotels that often, but if you really did get bored at Telluride, you could do a day trip to sight see CB.

The fact you haven't been to Telluride is a good reason to NOT cancel. If you have been there many times before, maybe then I would suggest rethinking your destination.

Canceling your trip may make your group reluctant to do future trips. I think you can still manage to have fun.

 

[Monique]

When you say once in a lifetime, does that mean you don't expect to be able to do this again, at least not for years? A lot of posters seem to be assuming you'll have a lot of other opportunities, but I get a different vibe.

 

[Christy]

But you can still be disappointed when you paid and planned for an A/B and even finding a C will do ok, but if it appears things might be a D its ok to consider other alternative if available to you. I mean you don't do these things for the D. And if you can change (if reasonable and practical and worthy enough for you to do so) to try to eliminate the D and get closer to the A as possible then why not? I don't think that would make anyone a pessimist. I think its just smart if its reasonably possible.

I wouldn't think someone was crazy for cancelling if they weren't interested in skiing those conditions. It's just a matter of, would you rather be skiing groomers in Telluride than: postponing/doing something else entirely/gambling on an advance booking at another ski area/paying $$$$ on a last minute trip based on conditions. All are valid options. It sounds like a lot of people would still rather ski groomers in Telluride than not do that, and I had a fine time on my trip overall when I did that. I mean, at least you have a great town and spectacular scenery; it's not like being a a small purpose built resort where if you get tired of icy groomers there's not many other redeeming features. (I've done that, too, and there are some places I have zero interest in going back to unless it's last minute, they have stellar conditions, and no place closer to me is skiing well). But maybe you'd rather get your money back and try again next year. Nothing wrong with that.

 

[Beartown]

At this point, it just sounds like you're driving yourself crazy with this. You laid out the situation, asked for advice, and got a bunch.

Which do you value more: good ski conditions, or whatever money you stand to lose by changing the trip?

If it's conditions, then either change the trip now (still gambling with Mother Nature on ski conditions at the new site), or wait and change it a week before the trip (probably more money lost, tougher time/more expensive to find lodging, but better bet for good conditions).

If it's money, then keep the trip in place, stop looking at the snow reports, and have fun in Telluride, conditions be damned.

The peanut gallery here has no skin in the game; they're just telling you what they'd do. You gotta do you.

Whatever you do, do not continue to stew over this for 2.5 more months. Life is too short.

 

[Bigtinnie]

@TonyC Can point you in the right direction in regards to where to go. The winter pattern is pretty much set right now and Telluride is just not favored. In spring things might change but man, you are just going at it the wrong way if you want powder. As it has been suggested last minute trips are the best bet when wanting good snow. If you must plan in advance look at resorts that are 100% open right now or close to that. That about guarantees that coverage will be superb when you get there.

@TonyC has been kicked off.
That’s a loss for Pugski.

 

[allgash]

When you say once in a lifetime, does that mean you don't expect to be able to do this again, at least not for years? A lot of posters seem to be assuming you'll have a lot of other opportunities, but I get a different vibe.

This is a great point.

The $1700 that you can't get back is a sunk cost. The question now is, what is the expected additional benefit stemming from the additional cost associated with switching Telluride for some other resort? A follow up question: how long until the next set of costs get locked in versus being able to refund them? I agree with other posters that if you can, try and wait until closer to the trip to decide whether to cancel or not.

If you need to make the choice now, I am going to go with an unpopular opinion and say cancel if you can eat the $1700. If nothing else, it will take away a layer of stress. If you pick a resort with a solid base, then no matter what happens over the next two months, you will still be able to ski most of the terrain, whereas with Telluride they could get a couple of dumps, and still not have enough of a base to ski some of the interesting terrain (though, granted, you're not skiing the truly advanced terrain).

There are lots of choices that come to mind, here are some selections with solid bases:

• Alberta (Louise, Sunshine), even if they don't get much more snow, you'll be skiing almost the whole mountains, and the views are among the best in all of skiing
• Whistler, the snowpack is 104% of average as of today, and Opensnow is forecasting 48" more over the next 10 days
• Jackson, Grand Targhee, Big Sky

 

[Chris Walker]

Personally, I would not eat $1700 just because the conditions 3 months before I go are terrible. Snow can pile up fast and furious in the San Juans, but even if it doesn't, you can still have an enjoyable stay. I've had really fun trips spending quality time skiing with close friends and family when the conditions weren't great. March is so far away, there are no guarantees. Sure, Whistler is great now, but rain can set in between now and March. Jackson Hole can be amazingly deep and fluffy one week, and warm up and turn to mush the next. Honestly, if perfect snow conditions are an absolute necessity, planning in advance doesn't make sense. There's basically 2 options here: stick with your plans and hope for the best (and plan to make the best of it if that doesn't materialize), or cancel, burn a big pile of cash, and wait until max of 2 weeks out to make plans, when costs and availability are likely to be difficult. Just because conditions are very bad now has no bearing on what they'll be in March. It's a risk, but no more a risk than when you first made your plans. I've seen years where there was no snow in the San Juans at Christmas but positively buried in March. Again not guaranteed but possible.

Case in point: 6 months ago, my wife got a too-good-to-turn-down Groupon or something for a room in Steamboat for Christmas Weekend. Up until two weeks ago, it looked certain to be a total bust. Almost no natural cover, only a few runs open with a man-made base, and nothing in the forecast worth mentioning. One week ago it looked like there would be a dusting of snow, and an arctic cold blast with highs in the single digits. How did it turn out? I spent the last 3 days skiing boot-top powder in comfortable temperatures and getting first dibs on newly opened runs all over the mountain. The only thing that went wrong was my legs giving out mid-afternoon of day 3. You just never know.

 

[oswaldr2]

@Goose can you give a breakdown of your sunk costs?

 

[Goose]

When you say once in a lifetime, does that mean you don't expect to be able to do this again, at least not for years? A lot of posters seem to be assuming you'll have a lot of other opportunities, but I get a different vibe.

I'll explain that. It means that another western ski trip is most probably years away if any. And if it even happens it probably will not be as a full family. I was fortunate as a teen to make two trips to the alps with our fam. But things were different of course back then in the 80's.

My situation decades later now with my own family is much different. Firstly my wife's idea of a vaca is always white sand/palm trees, and blue water. I of course know all too well and understand there are many different things than just that for a vaca because my interests differ and I also know how awesome a big mountains winter/ski vaca can be to see and do as one of them.

Going out west for a winter ski is something Ive been trying to do for years. Its not like we get to go on any vaca every year. But finding the time for a vaca in the winter has simply never been able to work out for the 4 of us. Much of that reason has been school, sports, and other obligations never allowing the time frame to work other than for some weekenders.

Im doubting (unless she happens to magically fall in love with the trip) that my wife would again ever be interested to make such a trip even if we do get another chance. And since my kids are older now who knows if common time (due to different reasons) as well as their pure age (and different obs) itself will ever again all work out to make it happen again for us.

So when I say once in a life time its a little bit of an overstatement of course as it is actually possible but it is very unlikely to be something (unless i hit the lottery and/or my wife loves it) that happens more than a couple more times in the future at most if any at all. So thats why I say "once in a lifetime". Reality and practicality are just not dictating it would be repeated but very little at most if Im lucky.

 

[Goose]

At this point, it just sounds like you're driving yourself crazy with this. You laid out the situation, asked for advice, and got a bunch.
.

Im not trying to beat a dead horse nor beat myself up by being repetitive and i know some of what I say has been somewhat repetitive but much of my responses at this point in the thread are to respectfully respond and continue in conversation with those who are writing posts for me (and the topic). A lot of good opinions and conversation taking place and this thread might serve well for others planning vaca's as well and not just myself. Almost all have been and continue to offer well thought out posts including yours.