I've actually been skiing a fair amount. The scheduled lessons are a draw - don't want to miss a lesson that everyone else in the group got. So I've been skiing with a purpose, not just lapping, and that helps a lot. I'm a much better skier right now than I would be if the season were on track. I could tell yesterday - I was so much smoother on variable snow in nil visibility than I have ever been.
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Colorado Honestly, should I change my ski vaca plans due to lack of snow but will lose money
I've actually been skiing a fair amount. The scheduled lessons are a draw - don't want to miss a lesson that everyone else in the group got. So I've been skiing with a purpose, not just lapping, and that helps a lot. I'm a much better skier right now than I would be if the season were on track. I could tell yesterday - I was so much smoother on variable snow in nil visibility than I have ever been.
Unless you have some refundable deadline approaching, there doesn’t seem to be any advantage to canceling now. If you’re going to lose money either way, wait until you’re closer to your trip to get a better idea of what will be good then. The only thing worse than switching now and losing money is switching to somewhere that ends up with terrible/current Telluride like conditions in March.
For perspective, my only trip to Telluride was in Feb 2015. We arrive almost a month after the last snowfall of more than 1". Daytime temps in the mid 50's with nary a clioud in the sky. Needless to say, ski conditions were abysmal. Booked in advance, rented a house with seven guys, so there was no turning back. Had a good attitude, and a great trip. Skied mushy groomers all day. Had a lot of laughs, some great food, and spectacular views. Town is great, would love to go back when conditions are good.
All that said, here's the Jan+Feb snowfall totals for Telluride for the past eight years:
2017-142"
2016-94"
2015-61" (that's my year baby!)
2014-94"
2013-117"
2012-114"
2011-61"
2010-97"
Aside from the odd bad year, that's a lot of snow for just Jan and Feb. You also have two additional weeks (next week and the first week of Feb) to accumulate snow. Granted, they could get dicked for the next two months. But so could anywhere. Changing horses now is just as much of a gamble as not changing horses at all. Anybody who picks skiing as a hobby needs to be aware that mother nature doesn't plan around your schedule. Either you chase pow and book last minute, or you book in advance and "you get what you get". I understand the frustration at potentially shitty conditions, but it's just how this whole thing works.
I personally would not change. T-Ride is a blast, good snow or bad.
I take a lot of ski trips. Most of them don't have epic conditions. I still have fun. In fact, here's my ski trips for the past few years, with trips containing powder days in bold. Note how little bold there is:
08-09: Breckenridge
09-10: Vail
10-11: Canyons
11-12: Alta, Solitude, Park City, Deer Valley, Aspen Highlands, Buttermilk, Aspen Mountain, Snowmass
12-13: Whistler, Homewood, Squaw Valley, Heavenly, Loveland, Beaver Creek, Arapahoe Basin
13-14: Winter Park, Copper Mountain, Keystone, Jackson Hole, Grand Targhee, Bridger Bowl, Moonlight Basin, Big Sky, Brighton, Snowbird, Snowbasin, Powder Mountain
14-15: Schweitzer, Fernie, Whitefish, Crested Butte, Telluride, Steamboat
15-16: Vail, Keystone, Beaver Creek, Aspen Mountain, Alyeska, Kirkwood, Mammoth, June Mountain
16-17: Aspen Mountain, Buttermilk, Lake Louise, Sunshine Village, Mount Norquay, Nakiska, Jackson Hole, Grand Targhee, Sun Valley, Snowbird, Alta, Snowmass, Aspen Mountain, Aspen Highlands
All that said, here's the Jan+Feb snowfall totals for Telluride for the past eight years:
2017-142"
2016-94"
2015-61" (that's my year baby!)
2014-94"
2013-117"
2012-114"
2011-61"
2010-97"
Aside from the odd bad year, that's a lot of snow for just Jan and Feb. You also have two additional weeks (next week and the first week of Feb) to accumulate snow. Granted, they could get dicked for the next two months. But so could anywhere. Changing horses now is just as much of a gamble as not changing horses at all. Anybody who picks skiing as a hobby needs to be aware that mother nature doesn't plan around your schedule. Either you chase pow and book last minute, or you book in advance and "you get what you get". I understand the frustration at potentially shitty conditions, but it's just how this whole thing works.
I personally would not change. T-Ride is a blast, good snow or bad.
I take a lot of ski trips. Most of them don't have epic conditions. I still have fun. In fact, here's my ski trips for the past few years, with trips containing powder days in bold. Note how little bold there is:
08-09: Breckenridge
09-10: Vail
10-11: Canyons
11-12: Alta, Solitude, Park City, Deer Valley, Aspen Highlands, Buttermilk, Aspen Mountain, Snowmass
12-13: Whistler, Homewood, Squaw Valley, Heavenly, Loveland, Beaver Creek, Arapahoe Basin
13-14: Winter Park, Copper Mountain, Keystone, Jackson Hole, Grand Targhee, Bridger Bowl, Moonlight Basin, Big Sky, Brighton, Snowbird, Snowbasin, Powder Mountain
14-15: Schweitzer, Fernie, Whitefish, Crested Butte, Telluride, Steamboat
15-16: Vail, Keystone, Beaver Creek, Aspen Mountain, Alyeska, Kirkwood, Mammoth, June Mountain
16-17: Aspen Mountain, Buttermilk, Lake Louise, Sunshine Village, Mount Norquay, Nakiska, Jackson Hole, Grand Targhee, Sun Valley, Snowbird, Alta, Snowmass, Aspen Mountain, Aspen Highlands
From 50 years of ski travel experience, there is No way i would cancel a trip now to anywhere in Colorado when it doesn't take place until March. Between now and March is a thousand years in ski time and that's the month when conditions are generally the best out there. We need Tony Crocker to weigh-in, but how many times in it's history has Telluride been less than 100% open in mid-March? I'd guess between zero and two times. The odds are greatly in your favor that everything will be fine.
For God's sake- don't panic the last week of December for a trip 2.5 months away!
I skied Telluride about 15 years straight in the 90s and 00s, usually a week in Feb, sometimes with a March return trip. There were fat years and there were lean years, but there was never a time when we didn't have a complete blast. Yes, there were times when lower Coonskin or Milk Run had sticks and stones showing (BTW, I just consulted the trail map- What's with re-naming the lower runs???). However, those are at the bottom and there's the whole upper part of the mountain and the Mountain Village side that should be just fine. Of course, there is a non-zero probability that you'd get snookered, but unless something unspeakable happens between now and the end of February, your trip should be just fine.
I skied Telluride about 15 years straight in the 90s and 00s, usually a week in Feb, sometimes with a March return trip. There were fat years and there were lean years, but there was never a time when we didn't have a complete blast. Yes, there were times when lower Coonskin or Milk Run had sticks and stones showing (BTW, I just consulted the trail map- What's with re-naming the lower runs???). However, those are at the bottom and there's the whole upper part of the mountain and the Mountain Village side that should be just fine. Of course, there is a non-zero probability that you'd get snookered, but unless something unspeakable happens between now and the end of February, your trip should be just fine.
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TS
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Really appreciating all the opinions and advice.
Not an easy thing to go through when it's a first in lifetime trip ive waited a very long time for and never knowing when similar will again take place so im sure you can all understand . And I really appreciate all are being honestly helpful and understanding towards my concerns. So Thank you for that and keep the opinions and shared experiences comming.
Not an easy thing to go through when it's a first in lifetime trip ive waited a very long time for and never knowing when similar will again take place so im sure you can all understand . And I really appreciate all are being honestly helpful and understanding towards my concerns. So Thank you for that and keep the opinions and shared experiences comming.
I've recently gone through the first-in-a-lifetime ski trip thing.
My two cents are: conditions are unlikely to be as epic as you've seen in advertisements, or even on ski forums. People don't post the mediocre days. The first time I skied Jackson it was 2nd week of a high pressure system. When I skied Snowbird and T-ride last year for the first time it had been a week-plus without snow. All the experiences were still great. The grandeur of the place, the challenging skiing, the fun towns.
I'm about as ski obsessed as anyone. I regularly get reprimanded for rushing people to the hill, rushing people through breaks, so I can ski ski ski. What ski travel has taught me is that it is skiing and travel . When one isn't great, the other picks up the slack.
My two cents are: conditions are unlikely to be as epic as you've seen in advertisements, or even on ski forums. People don't post the mediocre days. The first time I skied Jackson it was 2nd week of a high pressure system. When I skied Snowbird and T-ride last year for the first time it had been a week-plus without snow. All the experiences were still great. The grandeur of the place, the challenging skiing, the fun towns.
I'm about as ski obsessed as anyone. I regularly get reprimanded for rushing people to the hill, rushing people through breaks, so I can ski ski ski. What ski travel has taught me is that it is skiing and travel . When one isn't great, the other picks up the slack.
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The point made about different ski areas needing more or less base to ski decently is an important point. I have no knowledge about how much snow is needed to provide decent conditions at Telluride as I have never skied there.
I always ski at Vail on trips west and Vail skis pretty decently in poorer snow years. Years ago I would travel up to Mammoth on business trips to LA and ski a few days and learned pretty quickly Mammoth needs a decent amount of snow to cover the rocks
I always ski at Vail on trips west and Vail skis pretty decently in poorer snow years. Years ago I would travel up to Mammoth on business trips to LA and ski a few days and learned pretty quickly Mammoth needs a decent amount of snow to cover the rocks
Come March, we are going to look back on this thread and ___________.
Appreciate all the fabulous advice members here gave @Goose.
Look forward to his awesome Telluride trip report and pics.
+1,000 on what @RuleMiHa, @Monique and others have said.
A Colorado passholder’s “meh” week is likely to be an East Coaster’s best conditions they’ve seen week. Even without recent powder or lower than average snowfall, your very first ski trip out west in all likelihood will be fabulous.
Bigger and more dramatic terrain, nicer snow than we are used to in nearly any category, no bone-chilling damp cold temps like March sometimes throws at NE, little or no ice to speak of, nice groomers, generally much wider and longer trails than accustomed to with a lower density of skiers, plus the novelty of being out west and experiencing the Rockies in all their glory.
@Goose, I think that you’ll be okay at worst, elated at best...even if the natives don’t think conditions are all that.
We were you 5 years ago at Squaw. Since we had come all the way from Virginia, the locals were especially apologetic for their “awful” conditions.
It was the best snow we’d ever seen. Keep the faith!
A Colorado passholder’s “meh” week is likely to be an East Coaster’s best conditions they’ve seen week. Even without recent powder or lower than average snowfall, your very first ski trip out west in all likelihood will be fabulous.
Bigger and more dramatic terrain, nicer snow than we are used to in nearly any category, no bone-chilling damp cold temps like March sometimes throws at NE, little or no ice to speak of, nice groomers, generally much wider and longer trails than accustomed to with a lower density of skiers, plus the novelty of being out west and experiencing the Rockies in all their glory.
@Goose, I think that you’ll be okay at worst, elated at best...even if the natives don’t think conditions are all that.
We were you 5 years ago at Squaw. Since we had come all the way from Virginia, the locals were especially apologetic for their “awful” conditions.
It was the best snow we’d ever seen. Keep the faith!
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TS
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Yea that's ^^^^^^^ sort of it. What does it take to establish a base there on a good percentage of the place? Hasn't begun yet and hence the issue.
Well.....I can think of just about anything for filling in that blank puzzle. lol but only Mother nature has that secret. If my trip was right now it wouldn't be a pleasant fill in. But I am at least pleased Im not filling that in right now.
More thanks to everyone. Your all making me feel a little better. Human nature is still going to leave me concerned but at least I feel a little better while im at it.
The current conditions is like the stock market when it's down. Just don't look at it and obsess over it. It will rebound over time and you have 2.5 months. My advice is don't check anything (weather, webcams, this forum 
until Feb 1.
I'm heading out to Summit County (from Alabama) this week for my annual 3 week trip (started this 3 years ago). I've learned that no matter what the conditions, I always have a good time just getting away to the beauty of CO. Another skier ran into me and broke my arm 3 years ago 6 days into my first month-long sabbatical out there and I was totally bummed that my ski trip was ruined. Then I drove up to the top of Loveland Pass and was just in awe of the view and majesty of the CO mountains and my whole perspective for the rest of the trip changed. I didn't get to ski. But I hiked, drove to other places, etc. Just made the best of it. Relax. You'll be fine.
until Feb 1.I'm heading out to Summit County (from Alabama) this week for my annual 3 week trip (started this 3 years ago). I've learned that no matter what the conditions, I always have a good time just getting away to the beauty of CO. Another skier ran into me and broke my arm 3 years ago 6 days into my first month-long sabbatical out there and I was totally bummed that my ski trip was ruined. Then I drove up to the top of Loveland Pass and was just in awe of the view and majesty of the CO mountains and my whole perspective for the rest of the trip changed. I didn't get to ski. But I hiked, drove to other places, etc. Just made the best of it. Relax. You'll be fine.
@Goose I agree with the others that it is still way too early to change plans unless a refundable deadline is near. Telluride is a magnificent mountain and town (one of my absolute favorites), but it always is somewhat low snow cover, particularly early season. And it is very southern. . . fwiw, it isn't even in the Rockies (it is in the San Juans). I'd never book Telluride for December in advance. . . but Feb/March is reasonable in a typical year. So you didn't do anything insane booking for early March. And the good news is that it is very high elevation, so if they get any base at all between now and March, it will preserve well. I've skied Telluride in early April and although it was boney in spots, the snow was excellent.
Given that you are flying into Montrose, you do have some options (I assume that you aren't flying directly into Telluride. . . . even if you are booked through TEX more likely than not, you will shuttle from Montrose). Aspen is only an additional 1.5 hours of driving further than Telluride (3.5 v. 1.5) and it seems like they are getting started slowly but with a decent base (someone from Aspen should validate that). Aspen is also Mountain Collective, if that is your pass story. You could also re-route to Crested Butte from Montrose if they end up in better shape due to their location being further north.
Or, if you want to guarantee snow, pull the rip cord on CO entirely, look north and re-book up north in Canada. With a neutral to moderate La Nina developing, Whistler is a pretty good bet for this March, along with the rest of BC. I am in Okanagan BC right now (Big White) and there is plenty of snow here (excellent coverage for December), nearly full operations, great snow conditions and the seasonal weather pattern is favorable.
It is tough to predict this stuff more than a couple of weeks out, however. So I'd wait until the 11th hour and make a call at that point.
Like Monique I've also dialed back my ski trips because I too get skunked too much. Like others have said, it's just hard to plan in advance and get good conditions. That's not in the brochures and you don't see as many posts about bad or meh conditions as you do raving about powder days. The only time I've skied anything but hardpack in CO was the time it snowed 2' in Steamboat then rained. I was in Telluride in Feb 2015. There was a 30" base and I'm pretty sure that was manmade. I have started to ask myself why I'm taking ski trips when I can ski great snow at my home mountain (Crystal Mt WA) and stay home when it's not great. We still do travel but mostly to Sun Valley, which I like so much that even if conditions are brutal--and sometimes they are (looks pretty bad for trip in 2 weeks)--I'm still happy to be there. That to me is key. It's an outdoor sport and there's no guarantees (just like it can rain the whole time you are in Hawaii). I now tend to think of ski trips as vacations where I hope the skiing is good, not Trips Where I Expect Powder and Amazing Conditions. So I actually had a fine time in Telluride. I loved our hotel, ate good food, and saw top notch scenery. Here's what it looked like. Beautiful, right? Not really a winter wonderland though.
Telluride is a great little town, the prettiest town I've even been to in the US, and I think you can still have a good trip there in poor conditions, but you gotta lose the "trip of a lifetime" and "we expect a winter wonderland" sentiments. First, they really don't get that much snow--isn't it only about 300" in a good year? There's plenty of info out there about how to maximize your chances of a powder day; go to somewhere like Alta, book refundable tickets on SW so you can change dates if needed, etc. So if that's the #1 most important thing, maybe you should cancel and book somewhere where there is a better chance of snow or wait until the last minute then book. If you can think of it as a vacation to a great town with some skiing that may or may not be amazing, then keep the reservation. If you get a powder day, consider yourself very, very lucky.
The whole Trip of a Lifetime thing--obviously I don't know your circumstances and it sounds like it's really hard for you to get away. But no matter where you are going, that's just setting the bar so high I don't know how any trip could meet expectations. I usually hear people talk about the TOAL after an amazing trip. You can't plan for a TOAL. We went to French Polynesia earlier this year, and I had to do a lot of managing expectations in advance. It was 3 flights and a whole lotta money, but I got into the mindset in advance that it WILL rain (it's the tropics after all), everything will be ridiculously expensive, the food might be bad, Air Tahiti might cancel our interisland flights, etc. It ended up being an amazing trip because we were able to take bobbles in stride.
Telluride is a great little town, the prettiest town I've even been to in the US, and I think you can still have a good trip there in poor conditions, but you gotta lose the "trip of a lifetime" and "we expect a winter wonderland" sentiments. First, they really don't get that much snow--isn't it only about 300" in a good year? There's plenty of info out there about how to maximize your chances of a powder day; go to somewhere like Alta, book refundable tickets on SW so you can change dates if needed, etc. So if that's the #1 most important thing, maybe you should cancel and book somewhere where there is a better chance of snow or wait until the last minute then book. If you can think of it as a vacation to a great town with some skiing that may or may not be amazing, then keep the reservation. If you get a powder day, consider yourself very, very lucky.
The whole Trip of a Lifetime thing--obviously I don't know your circumstances and it sounds like it's really hard for you to get away. But no matter where you are going, that's just setting the bar so high I don't know how any trip could meet expectations. I usually hear people talk about the TOAL after an amazing trip. You can't plan for a TOAL. We went to French Polynesia earlier this year, and I had to do a lot of managing expectations in advance. It was 3 flights and a whole lotta money, but I got into the mindset in advance that it WILL rain (it's the tropics after all), everything will be ridiculously expensive, the food might be bad, Air Tahiti might cancel our interisland flights, etc. It ended up being an amazing trip because we were able to take bobbles in stride.
In my experience, 4-5 feet of snow is needed for Telluride to open most of their lift-served terrain (excluding some rocky chutes and low-elevation steeps under lifts 7 & 8). The fact that the past eight Feb/March totals that Beartown posted all show more than 5 feet should give you some reason for optimism. So I agree with many others who say don't cancel until/unless you have some refund deadline coming up.
LewyM's suggestion of Crested Butte as a possible alternative is a good one--it's about 2 hours from Montrose, so a great option for letting you leave your flights as-is if the storm tracks favor it. Another fun town with great scenery. Not quite as much terrain for your wife, but a decent amount. You could potentially do something like ski 2 days in Telluride, spend a night in Montrose, then ski 2 days in Crested Butte to save money on lodging. I wouldn't expect Crested Butte's lodging to run out/get much more expensive over the next couple months, so no rush there.
Also keep in mind that the forecast over the next 2.5 months is uncertain everywhere. So even if you were to trade out these reservations with somewhere like Alberta or Montana, there's no guarantee that they'll have much snow by March, either. And it would really suck to eat a $1700 loss and make new nonrefundable plans, only to see that destination turn sour in the coming weeks.
LewyM's suggestion of Crested Butte as a possible alternative is a good one--it's about 2 hours from Montrose, so a great option for letting you leave your flights as-is if the storm tracks favor it. Another fun town with great scenery. Not quite as much terrain for your wife, but a decent amount. You could potentially do something like ski 2 days in Telluride, spend a night in Montrose, then ski 2 days in Crested Butte to save money on lodging. I wouldn't expect Crested Butte's lodging to run out/get much more expensive over the next couple months, so no rush there.
Also keep in mind that the forecast over the next 2.5 months is uncertain everywhere. So even if you were to trade out these reservations with somewhere like Alberta or Montana, there's no guarantee that they'll have much snow by March, either. And it would really suck to eat a $1700 loss and make new nonrefundable plans, only to see that destination turn sour in the coming weeks.
Lots of excellent points, @Christy !
FWIW, Crystal is on my list - in some vague and fuzzy "some day I'll have time to travel and not feel stressed" way.
And your post helped, er, crystallize for me why I've fizzled on ski trips. I do want trips to somehow be more epic than what I can get at home. Except what I can get at home is others' destination vacation, plus I know it well, so I don't have to waste any time getting on the wrong track or worrying that if I chase terrain, I'll end up cliffed out. And it's obvious from what I've just typed that my focus is definitely on the skiing, not the views, the food, the charming town, etc.
That being said, I *may* have more flexibility in my schedule coming up, and maybe that will take some of the pressure off of ski trips.
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TS
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Not that it matters for the topic but just for interest in geology, technically it is the Rockies. Its one of several named mountain ranges within the Rockies. Sort of like the Catskills and the Poconos are part of the Appalachians over in the east. And interesting enough were at one time as high as the alps and rockies. But then fwiw so was it that at one time most the central united states was an ocean....lol and I suppose enough with the geology lessons though imo its interesting stuff
fwiw W/BC was a serious consideration of mine for this trip and one of my original choices. I thought very long and hard and read reviews after reviews and spent a long time before making my choice with many different thoughts involved. Travel time involved, length of stay, time of year and average weather and conditions at that time, diversity of terrain, spring break crowds, town/community, scenery, etc, etc, etc, and T simply came out on top (via all things considered). Not that T met every criteria greatly nor better than other places but just that it didn't fall real short at any of them and seeming to satisfy most my requests most constantly across the board and hence became my choice. Other places may have excelled in answering some criteria yet seemed to then slack a bit in meeting some of it. And so that's how T won my choice.
In fact the one area that T did lack just a tad was total snow and i know that sounds as to then say..... "well then".... "why then would I complain" .
But Ill explain.
As for planning the trip and knowing snow totals were not among the highest ones....... yet still at 300" average and thats not something I would ever call worrisome in any way at all and is not at all a fail at meeting a criteria of snow issues. And considered the given time of year (March) and also given its history of having its better snow months in the later half of winter I felt (like you said) it was a confident bet.
But knowing that vs not having anything at all snow (ski) wise by late December and forecast very little through possibly mid Jan is an extreme far cry from a 300 average even if knowing feb and march are the heavier snow months. That's still a very bad even worrisome start to the ski season regardless. There would be a whole lot of making up to do at this point at building a base. You don't even have to make it up total snow wise per say but you do just want and at least expected some base to be building on most the mountain by now even if not yet skiable. That's the part that seems the most problematic and frustrating here right now of course. The non snow making majority if the mountain is bare. And its not like T has 500 acres of snow making. Getting a couple inches per dropping one to 2 weeks apart is laughable and is not truly building anything. Hence the bare mountain and this thread as you already know..lol
Im just going to have to let it go (if I can) and see what happens through the end Janurary. But I know me and I know I will be checking just to make myself nuts..lol. And again you guys and gals are making me feel a bit better about this. I suppose I'll have to wait a month before making any real decision and/or also base things off of final payment timelines. One problem with that is air fair does tend to go up the closer you get to the time you want to vaca. If another 2 weeks goes by as forecasted (which is not really good looking right now) and then I also see minimal expected for the next two, then I think I will have to start to really consider my other options at that point. Thanks for the post
