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Goose

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I been participating in the "Bitch about the weather thread" with some sarcasm and fun yet also serious bitching. But I have to say its really becoming problematic as for my scheduled trip to Telluride in march. There is simply no snow. The forecast for next couple weeks shows none to very little and further out still shows only minimal at best. I mean this puts me through at least late January before anything substantial could even be considered and thats only via wishful thinking.

I just don't understand how the resort would even establish a base to cover anything but the manmade runs as all they really have is nothing but a hope that February brings good snows. I mean are they to expect 200 inches in just February to make up for this terrible snow deficit that has been December and what looks to continue till well into January?

I didn't book this expensive trip out west so I could see closed runs and bare spots on the slopes.. I could do that in the Poconos and Catskills. To be honest we are actually doing much better.

After about 20 years of finally being able to get out west its really disheartening to know its a disgusting year for snow. One of the reasons (among many) I picked T was because it rates among one the better places for march skiing conditions. But I cant imagine with the way it has gone so far and is also expected to be well into January that they would somehow reach even close to normalcy in basically only the month if February.

Im seriously considering losing a high chunk of non refundable money and seek elsewhere. This was not easy to do financially to begin with but when I consider the total expense was in part paid to experience the west , it seems Im damned if I do and damned if I don't so may as well eat it and spend more to go and find an experience we were looking for in the first place. It doesn't look like T (as beautiful as it is suppose to be) is going to be living up to its rep this year or even a percentage of it.

People say "ah don't worry so much it will be fine" or "you got time it will happen", etc, etc. And while I understood that a month ago its now getting ridiculous and looks to stay way under par in the next couple weeks. When do you say "oh boy this is bad" and eat the cost to change the trip you only get to go on but once and who knows if/when it can take place again.

Lets face it.......one 18" dump in Feb (if that even happens) or a few snows is still not going to turn tings around to normalcy. The place doesn't even have any base at all yet except for a few manmade runs. I can wait but the closer I get to march the harder its going to be to book another and more expensive it gets. I'll also stand to lose about 1700 bucks doing so and that's simply to change things let alone find another flihhts and accommodations elsewhere.

I honestly don't know what to do. Am I over reacting here? Should I expect late Jan and the month of feb to turn the whole thing around or is it honestly a bit too late for that at this point anyway? I mean there is literally zero snow there covering anything at all. The mountain and town are simply completely bare and with nothing at all but smallest amounts showing for the near future.

What to do, what to do? I could ski manmade runs along side bare spots right here. Can I expect T to recover from this between late Jan and the month of feb? will it? or is it honestly a bit too much a deficit to overcome at this point. When I say this point I mean consider the next 2 week or so forecast so lets make believe this is already Jan 7th. When do you say "lets get out of dodge" and seek whiter pastures..lol.

Some advice please. and please understand I am ignorant as to just what is normal and good or bad out west and how things work. But even being ignorant to the situation, no snow is no snow. Nothing so special to understand about that part.
 

SkiNC

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Conditions look great in Banff right now. Went in Jan and it was amazing. But, if things do pick up at Tride, I can say that was also an awesome trip when I went last year! Great town too. Good luck, I’m going to SLC in 2 weeks and I.t doesn’t look much better
 

Philpug

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Vacation in March? As much as some think they can predict the weather, all they can do is guess...granted it is an educated guess based upon past trends but no one can tell you what the weather will be three plus months from now. We don't know if anywhere will have snow at that point in March. One of the problems with Telluride is that you don't have a plan B..an out of another resort that is close that you could day trip from. Right now Summit Co is getting snow but Vail/BC is getting skunked, if you were at Vail, you could stay trip over to another resort. Telluride, not so much.
 
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SBrown

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Absolutely it can be made up by March. Not saying it will or won't, but that's over 2 months away. Any forecast over 10 days out isn't going to be at all accurate, so don't base any decision on that.

I understand about wanting to cancel, but I wouldn't do it yet.
 

jmeb

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1. No forecast >2 weeks out is very reliable. If you're coming in March, you have all of Jan and Feb still ahead of you. That is a lot of time to build a base. Look at any of the big forecasters and they'll tell you long range forecasts rarely verify.
2. What kind of terrain do you realistically want to be skiing? It might not be an epic snow year, but unless you are really jonesing to hit some of the most extreme terrain, in all likelihood what you want to ski will be open.
3. If you cancel now you lose $1700. When is the last date you can cancel and lose that same amount? Wait until then.
 

Monique

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I'm sorry. I know this sucks. This season has been rough on all of us, but roughest on travelers.

Unfortunately, this is a lot like switching shopping cart lanes. You know how that goes. I'm not saying to hold fast or to cut your losses - I'm just saying it's one of those impossible decisions.
 

scott43

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My opinion is, be honest about what terrain you want to ski. I would guess, and it's a guess, that by March most of the advanced terrain would be open one way or another. The expert terrain may not in a bad snow year. Do you intend to do chutes? The other thing is, do you expect tons of powder? I think most people who want to kill powder are booking Targhee or Whistler or Fernie. Honestly, odds of getting a powder day in Colorado aren't great anyway..I can see the hope, I always have hope, but if you're there for a week you're lucky to get one day of powder. I loved Telluride and I'd go even in a bad year because the place has such a great vibe. Loved it. So maybe not stellar pow every day, but man, what a great place to spend a week.
 

Ken_R

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I honestly believe the storm pattern is set for most of the season. It varies a bit from time to time and Telluride might be favored in some other storms but man, they would need about 100" for decent terrain openings and 150" for the really good (advanced/expert) terrain to open. They can get about 80" give or take in a great month. That said, Telluride is a great town in one of the most beautiful areas in the world. But, like anywhere, for great skiing you need snow. Specially if you are an advanced or expert skier. If you are a beginner or an intermediate then it doesnt really matter that much.
 

crgildart

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What level of snowmaking infrastructure do they have there? Id' think that if they are remotely modern they could at least make enough snow to have several blues and a couple blacks open, just not the spectacular western skiing experience that thousands of acres of insane terrain which can only be fueled by mother nature.

If it were me, I'd make the go, no go, change destination decision two to three weeks before the actual start date all switching and cancellation costs be damned. If, at two weeks out, all they have open is basically the kind of terrain you can ski in a day trip from home it's a no brainer to cancel or change it and eat the switching costs. If that they have is even slightly better than your day trip I'd stick with plan A and go for it. Bright side is it probably won't be as crowded as other places.. maybe a compromise would be to keep the same place but shorten the duration if less than half the terrain is open since it takes less time to take it all in..
 

PTskier

Been goin' downhill for years....
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Long range climate outlooks: (Where I booked my trips...last June...mostly show above average chance of precip and below average chance temps--I better go buy those Powerball & Megamillions tickets today!)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif

page2.gif
 

RuleMiHa

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I been participating in the "Bitch about the weather thread" with some sarcasm and fun yet also serious bitching. But I have to say its really becoming problematic as for my scheduled trip to Telluride in march. There is simply no snow. The forecast for next couple weeks shows none to very little and further out still shows only minimal at best. I mean this puts me through at least late January before anything substantial could even be considered and thats only via wishful thinking.

I just don't understand how the resort would even establish a base to cover anything but the manmade runs as all they really have is nothing but a hope that February brings good snows. I mean are they to expect 200 inches in just February to make up for this terrible snow deficit that has been December and what looks to continue till well into January?

I didn't book this expensive trip out west so I could see closed runs and bare spots on the slopes.. I could do that in the Poconos and Catskills. To be honest we are actually doing much better.

After about 20 years of finally being able to get out west its really disheartening to know its a disgusting year for snow. One of the reasons (among many) I picked T was because it rates among one the better places for march skiing conditions. But I cant imagine with the way it has gone so far and is also expected to be well into January that they would somehow reach even close to normalcy in basically only the month if February.

Im seriously considering losing a high chunk of non refundable money and seek elsewhere. This was not easy to do financially to begin with but when I consider the total expense was in part paid to experience the west , it seems Im damned if I do and damned if I don't so may as well eat it and spend more to go and find an experience we were looking for in the first place. It doesn't look like T (as beautiful as it is suppose to be) is going to be living up to its rep this year or even a percentage of it.

People say "ah don't worry so much it will be fine" or "you got time it will happen", etc, etc. And while I understood that a month ago its now getting ridiculous and looks to stay way under par in the next couple weeks. When do you say "oh boy this is bad" and eat the cost to change the trip you only get to go on but once and who knows if/when it can take place again.

Lets face it.......one 18" dump in Feb (if that even happens) or a few snows is still not going to turn tings around to normalcy. The place doesn't even have any base at all yet except for a few manmade runs. I can wait but the closer I get to march the harder its going to be to book another and more expensive it gets. I'll also stand to lose about 1700 bucks doing so and that's simply to change things let alone find another flihhts and accommodations elsewhere.

I honestly don't know what to do. Am I over reacting here? Should I expect late Jan and the month of feb to turn the whole thing around or is it honestly a bit too late for that at this point anyway? I mean there is literally zero snow there covering anything at all. The mountain and town are simply completely bare and with nothing at all but smallest amounts showing for the near future.

What to do, what to do? I could ski manmade runs along side bare spots right here. Can I expect T to recover from this between late Jan and the month of feb? will it? or is it honestly a bit too much a deficit to overcome at this point. When I say this point I mean consider the next 2 week or so forecast so lets make believe this is already Jan 7th. When do you say "lets get out of dodge" and seek whiter pastures..lol.

Some advice please. and please understand I am ignorant as to just what is normal and good or bad out west and how things work. But even being ignorant to the situation, no snow is no snow. Nothing so special to understand about that part.
What airport are you flying into? Are stopping over in Denver?
 
Thread Starter
TS
Goose

Goose

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thanks to all thus far for your opinions.
No I wont be skiing rocky chutes at least I don't believe so.. but some bowl skiing would be expected and honestly its just unknown how much of the mountain and where we would be hitting.
But going out west (for us) like many other travelers is also for the experience of a big mountain area winter. Part of the experience and beauty of that is snow cover in general even if on terrain we might not venture to.
The only big mountain skiing ive done was the alps and honestly even for those who don't even ski is an awesome experience to see. What traveler wants besides actually skiing is also that winter wonderland atmosphere that is suppose to come along with it. So with that said it doesn't just have to be a skiing disappointment but also about the winter experience on the whole.

We only are doing a sat to thurs trip. Time constraints (similar to why a winter west trip never worked all these years) has somewhat unfortunately made for a short week. Minus the travel days we only have 4 full free full days and I want them to be pretty and snow covered town and mountains. On one of those days Id like to do a half or full day guided snowmobile trip across some the country side with the fam. that's not written in stone but was an idea. However if the area is far below the winter norm that will not be as good nor as nice to do and see. Again its also about the rockies winter experience beauty and not just skiing. I want this to be something so pretty that my wife and family would want to go back or somewhere else similar in the future. Sure its also pretty in summer but Im not vacationing in the winter to see summer sights.

Our trip is set for march10th. When considering the forecast the next couple weeks of little to nothing that really puting about 2 months of time to get that place up to par with snows. Honestly I doubt that will be the case as there would be too much to make up for at this point. But what concerns me more is that Im not even confident that it will end up being even a decent percentage of normalcy. And I do understand "moniques" point about switching lanes. In one sense Ive got too much invested in this to switch but on the other hand what good is that investment if my return is to be poor and if I switch who knows what lies ahead?

I know we cant really predict what 2 months can bring but we do know they lost a month. I also understand T's history shows Feb and march as the snowier months and is what Im holding on to. But by now and certainly through first week or two of Jan you like (need) to see some base be already established on something other than a few manmade snow runs. So its hard to watch this right now and as said its been our only chance to go west we ever had. I want it to be a most worthy experience cause I don't know when it would happen again.

Thanks again and keep the opinions coming. At this point for now Ill just have to wait it out some more and hope a couple weeks from now things look up for the better. But if they don't Im going to have to really consider things.
 
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Goose

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What airport are you flying into? Are stopping over in Denver?
NY to Montrose direct but stop in D on the way home and I think know what your getting at. I could change that to Denver possibly. But still I lose similar monies "may be"' But its a thought.
I didn't want the spring break crowds of vail and similar area ski resorts and towns and was one reason (among a few others) I also chose T. But Im not really dead set against anything.
 

QueueCT

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I agree with @jmeb. No decisions until you get near a date where more of your trip becomes non-refundable. You're 2-1/2 months out. It could dump, it might not. The question is what are your other options? A) Cancel and wait until a better year or B) cancel and pick another resort. No guarantees on B either. If I'm in your shoes I'm going. You'll still have good skiing, the town is still the same and attitude will make all the difference in how much fun you and your family have.

As a side note, my cancellation date for Copper in mid-January was last week. No snow on the horizon but I rolled the dice anyway. Either way my daughters and I will have a blast.
 

RuleMiHa

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NY to Montrose direct but stop in D on the way home and I think know what your getting at. I could change that to Denver possibly. But still I lose similar monies "may be"' But its a thought.
I didn't want the spring break crowds of vail and similar area ski resorts and towns and was one reason (among a few others) I also chose T. But Im not really dead set against anything.
It's really about what your priorities are and where you want to make compromises. Only you and your family can decide that, also important how big of a dent that $1700 puts in your wallet. Also, if you don't know when you'll get a chance to go back..................

I'm an former Michigan/Midwest now east coast skier and I started going out to CO a few years ago. It is different and amazing and what the locals complain about could easily qualify as a best day ever on the east coast (IMHO). So I'm giving my opinion as an east coaster.

It looks like the northern mountains are doing better than elsewhere in CO, and the drive on I-70 going west is probably not as bad as you think. Aspen seems to be about two hours from Montrose, Breckinridge is about four, A-Basin maybe 4.75. If you could get the airline to not cancel your flights if you don't get on the Montrose flight you could potentially get a little more time by flying out of Denver and at least avoid airline cancellation fees (It's very possible to ski Loveland in the morning and get on an afternoon flight, I do it every time).

I'm just thinking there has to be a way to cobble together a west coast trip with significantly lower cancellation fees, that gets you a really good experience (but not a perfect experience). If it is a bad year all around the last minute housing might be hugely discounted (during the worst of the CA drought I got lodging at Squaw for a stupid low price). That way you could wait until the very last minute but have a plan B in place, not lose airline cancel fees, and decrease the pain of the lodging loss by taking advantage of last minute pricing.

It's not ideal, but nothing is..............
 
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tball

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Again its also about the rockies winter experience beauty and not just skiing. I want this to be something so pretty that my wife and family would want to go back or somewhere else similar in the future. Sure its also pretty in summer but Im not vacationing in the winter to see summer sights.

With respect, that's not a valid reason to cancel. Telluride will be snow covered and gorgeous in March.

It may or may not be wintery depending if it snows while you are there. A few inches of snow is all it takes. The odds of that happening are entirely unrelated to the snow conditions today.
 

Monique

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Not that it helps, but this uncertainty is why I have trouble pulling the trigger on any ski trip. We already have a lot invested in the skiing experience at Breck and Summit County generally. Whenever I've scheduled a trip outside of then, it seems like we get skunked. And high expectations don't help. At Breck, "it is what it is" - we go there almost every weekend. If weather is crappy, we can stay home, do laundry, and sleep in. Win/win. When we go somewhere else, it has to be a lot better than Breck to be worth the hassle and expense. Realistically, despite the fact that I would love to see and ski all the iconic peaks and runs - convenience always seems to trump wonder.

@RuleMiHa is right that I frequently bitch about conditions that visitors love. A few days ago, we were bitching on the lift about how crunchy a run called Cashier was. East coast skier sitting next to us chimes in: "Are you talking about Cashier? It was great, wasn't it?" I turned to him, "Are you from out of town?" Surprise, surprise - he was. I've had that experience more than once. My "ugh, why would you even bother?" is another's "skiing of a lifetime."

I understand the concern about wanting the full snowcapped mountain experience. I would try to assure you it won't be a problem, but the way this season is going, I don't want to tempt fate. It can be shocking, though, how little snow it takes for you to get that experience. And how fleeting even huge snow banks in town can be with a few warm, sunny days. When I fell in untracked (for the season) snow yesterday, it was 2.5 feet deep. That's plenty to coat a peak visually.

In summary: :huh:
 

bbinder

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Absolutely it can be made up by March. Not saying it will or won't, but that's over 2 months away. Any forecast over 10 days out isn't going to be at all accurate, so don't base any decision on that.

I understand about wanting to cancel, but I wouldn't do it yet.

This. I travel west to ski at least twice a season. I have been in between storm cycles in very good years and had less than stellar conditions. And I have been there during storm cycles in very low snow years, and skied in fantastic conditions. As a child of a friend of mine once said: you get what you get. Stick with your plans and just plan on having a good time.
 

Ken_R

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If weather is crappy, we can stay home, do laundry, and sleep in. Win/win.

I do not know about you but I have been doing a lot of laundry lately. A lot.
 

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