New England Updates On Vail Resorts / Stowe

[Mike Thomas]

I'm pretty sure the owner of Smuggs, when asked if Vail had approached him about selling, did say "no". But he didn't say he wouldn't, he said "not for at least 5 years"... which sounds a lot like "make an offer" to me.

 

[Jully]

VR likes to focus on the following. While Stowe seems to meet most of the criteria, not sure if Jay or Burke do:

• Each acquisition significantly improves the value proposition of the season pass, creates benefits locally and provides multi-year growth opportunitiesGuests who are high-end vacation travelers
• Guests who respond to targeted marketing
• Accessible locations
• Destination guests represent significant opportunity for growth given “sampling” behavior
• Local guests are consistent foundation for pass holder base
• Potential to drive yield in lift access and ancillary businesses

I would say Jay/Burke do actually meet a lot of those. Not as nicely as Stowe does, seeing as Stowe is about as high end and well known as anywhere in the north east can get, but still it is a nice fit, especially with Stowe already considered.

• Each acquisition...: having numerous northeast mountains in VT, considered the skiing capital of the north east is a definite value improvement, IMO.
• Guests who are high-end vacation travelers: Less so Burke, but a decent amount Jay. Jay used to be known as a no frills skiers mountain, but really not anymore. The new facilities they have built are quite luxurious and could definitely be spun to attract high end clientele. They currently market themselves as a family friendly/affordable resort, but I don't really buy that marketing.
• Accessible locations: Jay is about as accessible as Stowe, even more accessible from Montreal actually.
• Destination guests represent significant opportunity for growth given “sampling” behavior: Jay is very much a destination resort. I'd be willing to bet most of it's passholders are frequent samplers of other resorts in the northeast and probably out west.
• Local guests are consistent foundation for pass holder base: Stowe definitely has Jay and Burke beat here. Best Burke can offer is BMA.
• Potential to drive yield in lift access and ancillary businesses: Here again, without the town of Stowe, Jay and Burke don't fit this as well. They are much more isolated resort enclaves rather than a 'part' of the town like Park City, Vail, or Stowe.

I think many of these can be spun either way, but it is not like Jay/Burke WILDLY don't have a snowball's chance of fitting the VR model. The big two are the high end and local population piece, but nothing so much as to prevent VR from looking it at IF they want to increase their northeast presence.

 

[Jilly]

Jay is the middle of freakin' nowhere. It's still a hike from Montreal. They did run buses for day trips years ago. Not sure if they still do with the border issues. On mountain accommodations are limited. And not much else close.

But Jay is known for it's trees and snow.

But both may go at a bargain for VR.

 

[SkiEssentials]

I'm pretty sure the owner of Smuggs, when asked if Vail had approached him about selling, did say "no". But he didn't say he wouldn't, he said "not for at least 5 years"... which sounds a lot like "make an offer" to me.

Pretty sure tunneling under the notch starts next week. The Stuggs tunnel should be open by Christmas.

 

[MikeS]

I would say Jay/Burke do actually meet a lot of those. Not as nicely as Stowe does, seeing as Stowe is about as high end and well known as anywhere in the north east can get, but still it is a nice fit, especially with Stowe already considered.

• Each acquisition...: having numerous northeast mountains in VT, considered the skiing capital of the north east is a definite value improvement, IMO.
• Guests who are high-end vacation travelers: Less so Burke, but a decent amount Jay. Jay used to be known as a no frills skiers mountain, but really not anymore. The new facilities they have built are quite luxurious and could definitely be spun to attract high end clientele. They currently market themselves as a family friendly/affordable resort, but I don't really buy that marketing.
• Accessible locations: Jay is about as accessible as Stowe, even more accessible from Montreal actually.
• Destination guests represent significant opportunity for growth given “sampling” behavior: Jay is very much a destination resort. I'd be willing to bet most of it's passholders are frequent samplers of other resorts in the northeast and probably out west.
• Local guests are consistent foundation for pass holder base: Stowe definitely has Jay and Burke beat here. Best Burke can offer is BMA.
• Potential to drive yield in lift access and ancillary businesses: Here again, without the town of Stowe, Jay and Burke don't fit this as well. They are much more isolated resort enclaves rather than a 'part' of the town like Park City, Vail, or Stowe.

I think many of these can be spun either way, but it is not like Jay/Burke WILDLY don't have a snowball's chance of fitting the VR model. The big two are the high end and local population piece, but nothing so much as to prevent VR from looking it at IF they want to increase their northeast presence.

Also to be considered is that not all of their previous acquisitions have hit all of those marks. Their midwestern feeder hills definitely do not qualify as high-end in and of themselves, although they tap local midwestern metropolitan areas which contain such travelers.

The point about Montreal is also a very good one. People often think of accessibility from Boston/NYC and points south, but Montreal is a metropolitan area of over 4 million people, and Jay is within a stone's throw of the border. Further, the difference in overall travel from Boston to Jay vs. Stowe is actually a matter of 20 more minutes, so not exactly a dealbreaker. In fact, on travel time Burke and Stowe come out on par from Boston.

 

[dlague]

I think it will be fine. On their busiest day this past season Stowe had around 8,500 skiers.

As a comparison, on its busiest day Okemo had over 14,000 skiers - and it's a smaller mountain.

And then you have Killington that might have hit close to 20,000 on their busiest day.

If you want to talk about massive onslaught try skiing in Southern VT

Okemo smaller? Nope. Someone mentioned Okemo has slower lifts - nope.

Look up the stats

http://www.onthesnow.com/vermont/okemo-mountain-resort/ski-resort.html Total hourly lift capacity: 35,500 skiers/riders per hour

http://www.onthesnow.com/vermont/stowe-mountain-resort/ski-resort.html Total hourly lift capacity -15,516 passengers

What Stowe does have - better terrain!

Okemo does have a cluster f--- on lower mountain road. It is often quite at South Face.

 

[LKLA]

Okemo smaller? Nope. Someone mentioned Okemo has slower lifts - nope.

Look up the stats

http://www.onthesnow.com/vermont/okemo-mountain-resort/ski-resort.html Total hourly lift capacity: 35,500 skiers/riders per hour

http://www.onthesnow.com/vermont/stowe-mountain-resort/ski-resort.html Total hourly lift capacity -15,516 passengers

What Stowe does have - better terrain!

Okemo does have a cluster f--- on lower mountain road. It is often quite at South Face.

My original post referenced altitude, which once I thought about it realized how irrelevant that was to the subject at hand. Subsequent posts have clarified that Okemo has ~620 skiable acres vs Stowe's ~500, a much more relevant metric for this discussion.

As for the lifts at Okemo not being slower or as strategically located, I've lived it and experienced it more than twice, so not sure what else to say. I was actually at both Okemo and Stowe on their busiest days and while Stowe by no means felt empty, it was nowhere near the shit show that took place at Okemo.

For what it's worth, I think it has more to do with just the fact that Okemo had ~6,000 more people on the mountain while barely being 25% larger or having 45% more lifts, albeit less efficient ones in my experience. I think some of it has to do with the fact that Okemo was getting a lot of buses/tours/groups. We've been at Okemo most of the busiest days over the past three seasons and the biggest contributor to the increase in skiers seemed to be buses/tours/groups. My sense is that Stowe does not attract as many buses/tours/groups and I think that really helps in the flow at the mountain and the lodges.

 

[LKLA]

Stowe update -

The parking lot at Mount Mansfield Touring Center (down by the Toll House Double) will increase by 200 spaces, for a total of about 420, and will primarily be used for the cross-country center and resort employees as well as overflow parking for skiers.

This expansion joins two new parking lots adjacent to the Midway Lodge adjacent to the gondola about 1/4 mile up Mountain Road.

 

[SkiEssentials]

The parking lot at Mount Mansfield Touring Center will increase by 200 spaces, for a total of about 420, and will primarily be used for the cross-country center and resort employees as well as overflow parking for skiers.

This expansion joins two new parking lots adjacent to the Midway Lodge.

These are actually two different locations to clear up any confusion. The Midway parking expansion is pretty significant and should help some of the congestion on the Mansfield side of the mountain. We'll see!

 

[Muleski]

Up at Midway is another 150 or so cars? Surely can't hurt things. Have the thought that every single space will help this season.
Best of luck!

 

[Mike Thomas]

Every single space means more skiers on the hill and in liftlines... that does not help me.

 

[Muleski]

Every single space means more skiers on the hill and in liftlines... that does not help me.

I think we lost that hope a few months ago, with the VR announcement. Every extra parking space is going to help you find one for yourself, I assume? That was my "helping" thinking. Because being a season pass holder and getting turned away when there is no available parking truly does suck. Ask our friends at Squaw.

Who knows what the crowds will look like? I grew up skiing there, and recall when my parents were buying season passes {my wife and I coached weekends} in the 1980's for well over $1500. I have seen zero sales numbers relative to the Epic Passes that they think will predominately be used at Stowe. But at less that half of last years pass price, I would assume a big uptick.

I think any issue with your crowds on the hill, and in line can be pretty much attributed this coming season to VR and the Epic Pass. And that "slight reduction" in cost. My Stowe friends are a bit apprehensive.

I hope it's not just crazy. I love the place. I treasure it. We have many friends there, and we sneak back a couple of times a season, or have. Maybe the friends will be escaping to ski with us, instead.

I'm optimistic that things will go well.

 

[SkiEssentials]

I'm optimistic that things will go well.

We've been trying to share that attitude. There is going to be a big reduction in local collegiate skiers coming to Stowe as there are no more college discounts (that I'm aware of). Maybe that will help offset the increase in tourism due to the drastically lower season pass rate. Only time will tell.

 

[Muleski]

My thinking is pretty simplistic. Rob Katz and his leadership team at Vail Resorts are pretty smart. Do I love everything about every resort they own? No. Do I think they have ruined any/many? No.

Stowe is just an iconic place. It's a legend, as is the town itself. I don't see VR "blowing it up", and I do see their local GM's paying a lot of attention to details. My guess would be that when they first started looking at it, a bit more than a year ago, the issue of the parking, being up at the end of the railroad on the Mountain Road, and the need to get creative was probably near the top of the list. A "must do."

So, yeah, I don't see the ski experience going into the hopper. Will I rush there on the Saturday of MLK weekend? Maybe not.

I think it will all work out. Interesting news about the college passes, BTW.

 

[LKLA]

I son't see the ski experience going into the hopper. Will I rush there on the Saturday of MLK weekend? Maybe not.

Where exactly would you rush to Saturday morning of MLK weekend that would not be equally, if not more crowded I guess you could always go to Gstaad for the long weekend

 

[KevinF]

Granted the 16/17 winter was pretty epic in terms of snowfall, conditions, etc.

It did seem like when the parking lots were full (i.e, typical mid-winter Saturday) that the mountain was getting pushed beyond its capacity. I hardly ever rode the gondola last season because its line would get ridiculous. I'd retreat to lunch by 11:30 at the latest so that I could find a seat in the big cafeteria over at Spruce. I'd retreat to skiing bump / tree lines all day because the groomers would be insane.

If the crowds increase to what the Stowe "regulars" fear are they going to put giant air bags in the Nosedive turns to catch the carnage?

I've saved up my vacation days this year so that I can ski mid week as much as possible. I'm trying to be optimistic that this will "work out", but I'm not very optimistic.

 

[LKLA]

Granted the 16/17 winter was pretty epic in terms of snowfall, conditions, etc.

It did seem like when the parking lots were full (i.e, typical mid-winter Saturday) that the mountain was getting pushed beyond its capacity. I hardly ever rode the gondola last season because its line would get ridiculous. I'd retreat to lunch by 11:30 at the latest so that I could find a seat in the big cafeteria over at Spruce. I'd retreat to skiing bump / tree lines all day because the groomers would be insane.

If the crowds increase to what the Stowe "regulars" fear are they going to put giant air bags in the Nosedive turns to catch the carnage?

I've saved up my vacation days this year so that I can ski mid week as much as possible. I'm trying to be optimistic that this will "work out", but I'm not very optimistic.

Smuggler's Notch is right down the road

 

[Muleski]

Where exactly would you rush to Saturday morning of MLK weekend that would not be equally, if not more crowded I guess you could always go to Gstaad for the long weekend

Well, big mountain in New England? Sugarloaf is nowhere near as crowded. No close. One of the reasons why we moved our NE ski base 25 years ago.

Could always head to Quebec.

This year......We'll be in CO at that time of the winter, at a spot where believe it or not, there never seem to be many crowds. I'll probably be at Ajax or Highlands....depending on the snow.

 

[LKLA]

Well, big mountain in New England? Sugarloaf is nowhere near as crowded. No close. One of the reasons why we moved our NE ski base 25 years ago.

Could always head to Quebec.

This year......We'll be in CO at that time of the winter, at a spot where believe it or not, there never seem to be many crowds. I'll probably be at Ajax or Highlands....depending on the snow.

Sugarloaf is also nowhere near as "warm" , but I will take sub zero temps over crowds any day. Crowds are one of the top three (top two) things we avoid - which is why we live in NYC .

 

[Muleski]

Sugarloaf is also nowhere near as "warm" , but I will take sub zero temps over crowds any day. Crowds are one of the top three (top two) things we avoid - which is why we live in NYC .

Well, without sounding like a jerk, I've logged a few days at each. The better part of 35 years at Stowe, and coming up on 30 at Sugarloaf. Family owned a home in Stowe, then we owned one, have owned three at Sugarloaf. Least we have skied in all of these years is about 60 days in a season. Most....twice that.

I would say that neither is likely to be warm in January!! But both are about as good as it gets in March. I'll take Sugarloaf over Stowe in April. Snow tends to last a bit longer. Or, at least in our experience.

Some of the very best days that I have had at both mountains are the very coldest. Clear, still, and 25 below. No crowds!