New England Updates On Vail Resorts / Stowe

[Muleski]

I really want to like Sugarbush, but somehow it has just never spoken to me.

I spent the bulk of four ski decades based in Stowe. I've logged a lot of time at Sugarbush, and we have a lot of friends who ski there regularly. Not a huge fan. Have been there for so many ski races.

What I'm interested to see is how things work out with another group of friends...those who have a clear choice to head to either Sugarbush or Stowe as day trippers. Ski an occasional weekday, predominantly weekends.

What that group does and experiences this winter is of real interest to me. Could go a lot of different ways.

 

[Seve]

IF IF Vail bought Smuggs curious to know how strong the opposition would be to connecting Stowe and Smuggs? I know K and Pico have been trying it for years but the Appalachian Trail runs through that area and that's been part of the problem. I think a few rogue bears are in the area also.
Not sure if the Long Trail Trail runs through it or not??

 

[Guy in Shorts]

IF IF Vail bought Smuggs curious to know how strong the opposition would be to connecting Stowe and Smuggs? I know K and Pico have been trying it for years but the Appalachian Trail runs through that area and that's been part of the problem. I think a few rogue bears are in the area also.
Not sure if the Long Trail Trail runs through it or not??

They stopped grooming Snuffy’s and Sterling Pond back in the mid 90’s after Stowe had a groomer crack thru the ice. Buddy of mine who was the Smuggs nighttime snowmaking boss said the groomer operator was out of the cab taking a green smoke break when the machine broke thru. The hydraulic lines were broken dragging the groomer out of the ice resulting in an oil spill in Vermont’s highest pond. National Forest Service pulled permission to groom the trail afterward and being able enjoy both resorts on the same day is now history.
Now to answer your question as I see things it you would have easier time convincing Vermont environmental groups to back Trump then you would convincing them that allowing traffic across Sterling Pond was a good idea. Then again a plan with some interconnecting lift might appear a tad more plausible to some.

On the Killington/Pico interconnect Powdr has and continues to pay to keep the fees keeps their current permission to build the interconnect active. The AT/Long Trail issue was solved years ago when Killington paid a ton of money to move the trail and protect the trail corridor. Lingering low real estate prices in the area are the blame for the interconnect delays. Planned trailside expansion at Bear Mtn next year will answer the question if there is enough market demand.

 

[jonc]

Stowe is now advertising the Epic passes in their season pass section, no mention of daily ticket prices yet

Epic pass $859 adult, $449 child - unlimited, unrestricted for all Vail resorts including Stowe

 

[Philpug]

Stowe is now advertising the Epic passes in their season pass section, no mention of daily ticket prices yet

Epic pass $859 adult, $449 child - unlimited, unrestricted for all Vail resorts including Stowe

And the pass was how much prior?

 

[Brian Finch]

On the Killington/Pico interconnect Powdr has and continues to pay to keep the fees keeps their current permission to build the interconnect active. The AT/Long Trail issue was solved years ago when Killington paid a ton of money to move the trail and protect the trail corridor. Lingering low real estate prices in the area are the blame for the interconnect delays. Planned trailside expansion at Bear Mtn next year will answer the question if there is enough market demand.

Smart guy here! The interconnect is in peril bc the area is swapping big spenders from the 80s out for brown bagging millennials.

Then there's is the Jay issue.

 

[jonc]

And the pass was how much prior?

Not a passholder myself but from what I could find last year's season pass was $1860 if you bought early, up to $2300 if you bought later.

Daily rates 2016-17 were $92 on pre-purchase or $124 at window

 

[Seve]

Havn't skied over at Wally World since it's been built but with the new Sensation Quad might be worth a Gander?
Pretty sure Lookout Chair will be running a little bit earlier this year due to Epic.
It's going to be a massive onslaught at Stowe this year......anybody disagree?

 

[DanoT]

Not a passholder myself but from what I could find last year's season pass was $1860 if you bought early, up to $2300 if you bought later.

Daily rates 2016-17 were $92 on pre-purchase or $124 at window

So if season passes are now $859, I'd say they are counting on doubling their season pass sales as well as food and beverage.

 

[LKLA]

Havn't skied over at Wally World since it's been built but with the new Sensation Quad might be worth a Gander?
Pretty sure Lookout Chair will be running a little bit earlier this year due to Epic.
It's going to be a massive onslaught at Stowe this year......anybody disagree?

I think it will be fine. On their busiest day this past season Stowe had around 8,500 skiers.

As a comparison, on its busiest day Okemo had over 14,000 skiers - and it's a smaller mountain.

And then you have Killington that might have hit close to 20,000 on their busiest day.

If you want to talk about massive onslaught try skiing in Southern VT

 

[Jully]

I think it will be fine. On their busiest day this past season Stowe had around 8,500 skiers.

As a comparison, on its busiest day Okemo had over 14,000 skiers - and it's a smaller mountain.

And then you have Killington that might have hit close to 20,000 on their busiest day.

If you want to talk about massive onslaught try skiing in Southern VT

I don't think it will be as a direct comparison though. Okemo and K both ski a lot differently than Stowe does. Stowe's trails are narrower and compared to both Okemo and Killington have less room to spread out per lift. Think of the Gondi area.

Additionally parking will be a disaster with increased crowds. There are certainly more people OVERALL in So./Mid VT, but the per trail skier density is bound to become a lot more comparable to those other areas this year than in years past. Not necessarily equal, but not the experience people are used to.

 

[Guy in Shorts]

I think it will be fine. On their busiest day this past season Stowe had around 8,500 skiers.

As a comparison, on its busiest day Okemo had over 14,000 skiers - and it's a smaller mountain.

And then you have Killington that might have hit close to 20,000 on their busiest day.

If you want to talk about massive onslaught try skiing in Southern VT

Killington's best days are short of 15000. Okemo has near triple the skier density per acre than Killington. Stowe should start seeing Okemo/Stratton density numbers.

 

[LKLA]

Killington's best days are short of 15000. Okemo has near triple the skier density per acre than Killington. Stowe should start seeing Okemo/Stratton density numbers.

It would be silly to say that Stowe will see fewer skiers - little doubt that Stowe will only get more skiers going forward. But, for Stowe to go from 8,500 to over 14,000 like Okemo would require a pretty big increase; one that will likely not happen or not happen right away.

Btw, as it relates to lines / crowds / skier traffic - I'll take Okemo on a busy day over Killington on a busy day. There is a reason why they call it Kmart

 

[MikeS]

I think it will be fine. On their busiest day this past season Stowe had around 8,500 skiers.

As a comparison, on its busiest day Okemo had over 14,000 skiers - and it's a smaller mountain.

And then you have Killington that might have hit close to 20,000 on their busiest day.

If you want to talk about massive onslaught try skiing in Southern VT

Stowe is most definitely not bigger than Okemo. Taller, yes. Steeper, definitely. But for trail acreage, Okemo has over 600 acres, Stowe under 500. Add to this, almost all of Okemo's acreage has snowmaking and grooming and isn't steep. That means it can be easily skied by more of the skiing population. Stowe has much more of a portion of its acreage consumed by trails that have no snowmaking so they aren't skiable during low snow times. In addition, more trails at Stowe are ungroomed and/or steep, which keeps the terminal intermediates away from them. Once you take Lookout, Hackett's, the Front Four and Chin Clip out of the mix for intermediate skiers, it probably leaves Stowe with not even half the real estate for the average Joey.

But yes. I spent 3 years skiing 100+ days at Okemo, and 7 years skiing 50ish days at Stowe. I never saw Stowe anywhere near as crowded as Okemo.

 

[MikeS]

IF IF Vail bought Smuggs curious to know how strong the opposition would be to connecting Stowe and Smuggs? I know K and Pico have been trying it for years but the Appalachian Trail runs through that area and that's been part of the problem. I think a few rogue bears are in the area also.
Not sure if the Long Trail Trail runs through it or not??

Yes, the LT runs between the top of Spruce Peak/Stowe and Sterling/Smuggs.

But the owners of Smuggs came out with a flat 'no' about selling when the prospect was brought up to them. That being said, the infrastructure at Smuggs is getting old, and its only a matter of time before they're faced with a multimillion dollar lift replacement, or another huge capital investment. When that comes around, the prospect of selling and taking their profits may seem much more feasible.

 

[Muleski]

I agree with @MikeS's points in both posts ^^^^. Have a lot of Stowe time, and a couple of trips a year to Okemo to catch up with NYC friends and family who own and ski there.

I think Mike nails it. The terrain is very different, and not to sound like a real jerk, but so are the skills of many of those on the hill.

I still think the issue is going to be with parking and transportation. VR is a smart organization and I am sure they are all over it, with a variety of scenario plans. Fact remains that the actual number of parking spaces are limited. So hopefully that will work. And hopefully the numbers of skiers on the hill(s) will not just explode.

Smuggs is an interesting one. I was last there about five seasons ago, back when St. Mikes hosted their carnival races there. And when Smuggs was a pretty regular FIS stop. Even then, the general impression was the same as it had been for years. Cozy, honey, some tremendous terrain and woods. Ancient lifts, and quickly aging buildings.

Pretty much the story of older New England areas. As @MikeS suggests, there is a time when you simply can't just maintain with paint and elbow grease. And that point can be a rude awakening on terms of cost and the availability of capital. Season passes are cheaper, lifts are not. Snowmaking technology is great, and the equipment is super efficient...and not cheap. Building.....yep.

So Smuggs has "SELL" written all over it, once the owners get serious about an exit. My gut tells me that IF VR were serious, it might be their best deal by far.

If they wait too long, and the place really wears down, absent VR, it could be ugly.

The VT passing between the two areas will bring out every passionate conservationist in the state to argue against desecrating that space with a connecting lift. Maybe it can be overcome. Maybe it will take other creative options....burying the groomer right through the ice in the pond years ago is old history, but well remembered!

Seems to me that any long term future for Smuggs would best include VR. And that it could make Stowe that much more interesting.

Doubt if it's in the plans right now.

 

[KevinF]

Stowe is most definitely not bigger than Okemo. Taller, yes. Steeper, definitely. But for trail acreage, Okemo has over 600 acres, Stowe under 500. Add to this, almost all of Okemo's acreage has snowmaking and grooming and isn't steep. That means it can be easily skied by more of the skiing population. Stowe has much more of a portion of its acreage consumed by trails that have no snowmaking so they aren't skiable during low snow times. In addition, more trails at Stowe are ungroomed and/or steep, which keeps the terminal intermediates away from them. Once you take Lookout, Hackett's, the Front Four and Chin Clip out of the mix for intermediate skiers, it probably leaves Stowe with not even half the real estate for the average Joey.

Terminal intermediates stay off of Chin Clip? Since when? There are always bunches of skiers on Chin Clip; that are wishing they had tried something else...

to your point though... The Fourrunner quad especially serves a lot of terrain, a lot of which is not readily accessible to "most" skiers.

 

[LKLA]

For Stowe to go from 8,500 skiers on its busiest day to over 14,000 skiers like Okemo would require a 65% increase.

While Stowe is indeed smaller than Okemo when it comes to skiable acres (~500 acres for Stowe vs ~620 for Okemo), the difference is barely 25%.

This explains why Okemo felt way more crowded on its busiest day than Stowe felt on its busiest day.

The location/speed/size...of the lifts is another factor that seems to favor Stowe. While Okemo has 45% more lifts, 19 vs 13, the 45% increase in lifts is not enough to offset the 65% increase in skiers. And, the lifts at Okemo also seem to be slower and not as strategically placed.

As for the parking, I think it depends more on when you get there and if you are willing to pay for premium parking than anything else. No mountain is going to have a full parking lot at 7:00am nor an empty one at 10:00am.

 

[MikeS]

I still refuse to believe that VR isn't keeping an eye on Jay and Burke. We know VR likes to have multiple resorts in any given geographic area, if they can. We know that both Jay and Burke will go up on the selling block in the near future, and they will be sold at foreclosure prices. We know that both areas have a lot of new infrastructure, which make them mostly "move-in" ready for a new owner. I just see it as fitting a little too cleanly into VR's development model to pick up one or both of the resorts. I can't imagine a scenario where VR doesn't at least take a run at them.

 

[LKLA]

I still refuse to believe that VR isn't keeping an eye on Jay and Burke. We know VR likes to have multiple resorts in any given geographic area, if they can. We know that both Jay and Burke will go up on the selling block in the near future, and they will be sold at foreclosure prices. We know that both areas have a lot of new infrastructure, which make them mostly "move-in" ready for a new owner. I just see it as fitting a little too cleanly into VR's development model to pick up one or both of the resorts. I can't imagine a scenario where VR doesn't at least take a run at them.

VR likes to focus on the following. While Stowe seems to meet most of the criteria, not sure if Jay or Burke do:

• Each acquisition significantly improves the value proposition of the season pass, creates benefits locally and provides multi-year growth opportunitiesGuests who are high-end vacation travelers
• Guests who respond to targeted marketing
• Accessible locations
• Destination guests represent significant opportunity for growth given “sampling” behavior
• Local guests are consistent foundation for pass holder base
• Potential to drive yield in lift access and ancillary businesses

When VR bought Stowe they highlighted the following:

• Premier regional destination resort in attractive Northeast market
• Significant concentration of skiers in NYC, Boston, New England and MidAtlantic
• Important region for Western destination guests
• Established brand with strong heritage, diverse terrain and focus on guest service
• Significant recent investment in base area has created a uniquely modern, highend village in Northeast
• Stowe guest demographics and resort characteristics are highly complementary to network
• Acquisition creates significant opportunity to connect with NYC and Boston guests
• Value from multiple perspectives: Destination skiers gain regional option, Stowe skiers connect with western resorts and enhanced regional data