Well, you can't go wrong at Wolf Creek when there's a southwest wind.... They will probably end up with multiple feet out of this.
This is a smart woman. Is she taken?
@Jerez
Of those you listed, I would bet on Opensnow. The wild differences in forecasts are probably based on the different times that the forecasters are looking at model runs, and in this case the runs have been wildly different even hours apart.
Joel does the Colorado Opensnow daily and I guess does a weekly New Mexico report? In any case, he updates more frequently than the rest, and in my eyes has a lot more credibility. My (and my wife's above) experience with Wolfie weather is that SW flow and moisture in the air means NUKAGE.
That said, I'll add a few caveats.
1. Small storms typically overproduce at Wolf. An 8" forecast often turns into triple that. Big time storms like this one often under-produce or hit expectations but I have yet to see a big forecast (36+" where wolf blows the forecast away. Meanwhile, when I see a few days with 4-8" a day and southwest flow, I dig out the snorkel because tons of those cycles have turned into 80-100" of snow.
I think the reason is that with smaller storms, a few miles can make an enormous difference, and Wolf's microclimate is such that it will draw much more snow than a model aggregating point forecasts several miles across. However, with massive storms the microclimate effects matter less, and 100 miles of similar elevations may see similar amounts of snow.
2. When there is a massive forecast like this that shows up 10 days out, Wolf tends to get mobbed. The uncertainty with this one and the fact that most of the West is looking at the possibility of crazy forecasts may moderate the crowds some, but I've learned to be wary about crowds when a big time forecast shows up with enough time for people to book a trip. It may not suck compared to a Vail/Breck powder day, but the parking lots fill quickly and Alberta chair gets maybe 5 minute lines. Good skiing to be had but not the endless untracked that a typical Wolfie powder day is.
My standing recommendation is to look for those stacked up 4-8" forecast days with SW flow and book that trip. You'll feel like a genius in the empty parking lot and snow that would be all time most other places.
