IMO, if a move {acquisition or sale} will increase the value of either Alterra, or Vail Resorts, the move will take place. Value of MTN is pretty easily established, in the eyes of the analysts who follow the stock, by seeing effect on the MTN stock price. Whether the analyst community is "right" is another issue. They tend to be very bright people, but not deep knowledge-wise in this kind of venture. So they look at a variety of metrics. Much like they would with any resort investment. These folks follow cruise lines, casinos, theme parks, golf resorts, etc. Not so much ski related.
Alterra is a different animal, and at this point it's privately held. Those with the big stakes in the game are the Crown family, and the those invested in the KSL funds that own the various properties {and obviously KSL}. Alterra will no doubt survive and prosper, but for now, the strategy is likely to make whatever moves boost the value of the company the most by the time they decide it is right to have a "liquidity event." That event could be an IPO, or it could be a "flip" to another investment group, likely another PE firm or firms. Could be five years from now, could be a few more.....
Very different structures. For now. And, I believe despite the many, many comments on here that Alterra is just another consolidation player, playing the same game as MTN, they really are not. So, properties that might be of real interest to Vail might have no interest to Alterra. And vice versa. Some might have had/have real interest to both. For example, I believe that Alterra would have liked to pick off Crested Butte. But I also see no interest on their part in Okemo, let alone buying an operating lease on state owned Sunapee. That could prove to be a quick "out" by Vail, IMO.
I think we'll soon see more acquisitions and sales of Alterra properties. I also think that the number of Epic passes sold will continue to be the number one metric for MTN. That's what they lead with in everything they talk about. It's worked very well for them. Alterra is not going to be about pass sales. It may look that way through the first half of 2018,a and it may look that way for some time. I think it eventually will not. Alterra is not looking for feeder areas.
Jay? I would be a bit surprised to see MTN interested, and I would be shocked to see Alterra have any interest. Burke is going to end up under the control of a group of Burke Mountain Academy stakeholders. No doubt in my mind on that. It's a lousy commercial venture, and it's critical to BMA, which is important to a lot of deep pocketed folks.
Jay.... I understand that it's as simple as thinking about who will come to Jay and spend real money, and who will come FROM Jay to spend real money elsewhere. They you add in the need for some serious infrastructure spending...like the tram. I also hear people in the business wondering if the water park is a "good thing" or not. It draws people and young families love it. It comes with more expense and needs than I had realized. Utility costs alone are apparently staggering.
So....how attractive is Jay? I would not be surprised to see somebody like Win Smith, who owns Sugarbush, buy Jay and Burke, and work out a deal to transfer Burke's ownership. Or partner with a BMA-based group form the start.
Always interesting stuff to ponder ......
Jay does get a lot of Canadians, relatively speaking, based on location. Question is whether they represent the Montreal demographic that Vail or Alterra would really covet? Don't think of how well they ski, think of how they spend. The folks running the organizations don't look at this as most of us we do. Which, I hope, is to be expected.
The top 25% of destination resort skiers are where the money is disproportionately spent. They're both trying to grab it, and more, IMO.
Edited to fix a hundred autocorrects!
Alterra is a different animal, and at this point it's privately held. Those with the big stakes in the game are the Crown family, and the those invested in the KSL funds that own the various properties {and obviously KSL}. Alterra will no doubt survive and prosper, but for now, the strategy is likely to make whatever moves boost the value of the company the most by the time they decide it is right to have a "liquidity event." That event could be an IPO, or it could be a "flip" to another investment group, likely another PE firm or firms. Could be five years from now, could be a few more.....
Very different structures. For now. And, I believe despite the many, many comments on here that Alterra is just another consolidation player, playing the same game as MTN, they really are not. So, properties that might be of real interest to Vail might have no interest to Alterra. And vice versa. Some might have had/have real interest to both. For example, I believe that Alterra would have liked to pick off Crested Butte. But I also see no interest on their part in Okemo, let alone buying an operating lease on state owned Sunapee. That could prove to be a quick "out" by Vail, IMO.
I think we'll soon see more acquisitions and sales of Alterra properties. I also think that the number of Epic passes sold will continue to be the number one metric for MTN. That's what they lead with in everything they talk about. It's worked very well for them. Alterra is not going to be about pass sales. It may look that way through the first half of 2018,a and it may look that way for some time. I think it eventually will not. Alterra is not looking for feeder areas.
Jay? I would be a bit surprised to see MTN interested, and I would be shocked to see Alterra have any interest. Burke is going to end up under the control of a group of Burke Mountain Academy stakeholders. No doubt in my mind on that. It's a lousy commercial venture, and it's critical to BMA, which is important to a lot of deep pocketed folks.
Jay.... I understand that it's as simple as thinking about who will come to Jay and spend real money, and who will come FROM Jay to spend real money elsewhere. They you add in the need for some serious infrastructure spending...like the tram. I also hear people in the business wondering if the water park is a "good thing" or not. It draws people and young families love it. It comes with more expense and needs than I had realized. Utility costs alone are apparently staggering.
So....how attractive is Jay? I would not be surprised to see somebody like Win Smith, who owns Sugarbush, buy Jay and Burke, and work out a deal to transfer Burke's ownership. Or partner with a BMA-based group form the start.
Always interesting stuff to ponder ......
Jay does get a lot of Canadians, relatively speaking, based on location. Question is whether they represent the Montreal demographic that Vail or Alterra would really covet? Don't think of how well they ski, think of how they spend. The folks running the organizations don't look at this as most of us we do. Which, I hope, is to be expected.
The top 25% of destination resort skiers are where the money is disproportionately spent. They're both trying to grab it, and more, IMO.
Edited to fix a hundred autocorrects!
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