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LKLA

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Thinking around here is that you'd almost have to be crazy to take Jay even if it were free. Even while Quiros' scam was funneling free money into it from the fake projects in Coventry and Newport it wasn't making money. Why would it make money now. Now it is saddled with even greater operating costs than it has ever had before. Someone will buy it, but if Stowe only cost $41 million, there's no way in hell that they sell Jay for $80 million.


Two very different things.

Vail paid $41M for Stowe but it did not include any of the real estate or development land (basically nothing east of Mountain Road). So comparing the Stowe deal to buying "everything" at Jay Peak is not an apples to apples comparison. However, if you look at what Vail paid for "everything" at Whistler - $1.1 billion - then paying less than 1/12th of that for all of Jay Peak does not seem completely batshit crazy. Peak paid $37 million for Hunter two years ago.

What does seem questionable is the rational for Vail, Alterra or Peak to consider buying Jay. While it has some unique features like the water park that would help offest ski risk, it does require a significant capital investment in many areas and the location is perhaps a bit too "remote" for all three of these guys (Alterra already has two mountains in Maine so likely wants something closer to the large metro markets). More importantly, there are likely going to be - if not already - a bunch of very attractive mountains available to buy given the recent shake-up in the season passes and the dynamics of Vail buying Stowe last year. It's become a buyers market, particularly in the Northeast.
 

Jully

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What does seem questionable is the rational for Vail, Alterra or Peak to consider buying Jay.

Peak is definitely not interested. Their long standing m.o. has been that they are ski resort 'operators' and completely uninterested in destination type resorts with tons of real estate. They wouldn't even be interested in taking on something like Tremblant or another eastern 'destination' style resort that was in GOOD shape, never mind all the investment that Jay requires.

Curious, what mountains closer to the NYC or Boston metro markets in the northeast do you think are going to become for sale?
 

James

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How does the proposed Balsalms project affect this mess? Certainly if realized in some form it would be competition for the NEK? Not like it's easy to get anyone to go up there.
 

RJS

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How does the proposed Balsams project affect this mess? Certainly if realized in some form it would be competition for the NEK? Not like it's easy to get anyone to go up there.

How does the snow and terrain at the Balsams compare to Jay or Burke?
 

Erik Timmerman

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Two very different things.

Vail paid $41M for Stowe but it did not include any of the real estate or development land (basically nothing east of Mountain Road). So comparing the Stowe deal to buying "everything" at Jay Peak is not an apples to apples comparison. However, if you look at what Vail paid for "everything" at Whistler - $1.1 billion - then paying less than 1/12th of that for all of Jay Peak does not seem completely batshit crazy. Peak paid $37 million for Hunter two years ago.

What does seem questionable is the rational for Vail, Alterra or Peak to consider buying Jay. While it has some unique features like the water park that would help offest ski risk, it does require a significant capital investment in many areas and the location is perhaps a bit too "remote" for all three of these guys (Alterra already has two mountains in Maine so likely wants something closer to the large metro markets). More importantly, there are likely going to be - if not already - a bunch of very attractive mountains available to buy given the recent shake-up in the season passes and the dynamics of Vail buying Stowe last year. It's become a buyers market, particularly in the Northeast.

This assumes that anyone wants the hotel. It doesn't seem to have been helping Jay's bottom line.
 

LKLA

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This assumes that anyone wants the hotel. It doesn't seem to have been helping Jay's bottom line.

Agree, which is why I said that what does seem questionable is the rational for Vail, Alterra or Peak to consider buying Jay.

Skiing Jay is one thing. Having it be a part of your multi-mountain pass is yet another thing. Owning it, that is a completely different world.
 

Crank

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I would be interested to know Jay's numbers, meaning how many skier visits. As a long time Jay skier it seems to me that it has pretty healthy crowds on weekends and holidays and those have grown steadily since I first skied there in 1985. They did invest a lot in new hotels, indoor water park, building lots of slopeside condos...

Burke is a mid sized resort that has always struggled to attract a crowd. They don't get the snow that Jay does and I don't think the Montrealers that Jay attracts are driving an extra hour to get there. Likewise, Bostonians can get to Loon, Killington, etc faster and Stowe is about the same drive time. I think Burke is destined to not make money as a ski area and I hope they can continue to operate because it is a really nice place.
 

Jully

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How does the snow and terrain at the Balsams compare to Jay or Burke?
Snow is better than Burke and not as good and not nearly as much as Jay, at least that's my guess. They certainly get snow up there, but the location really shines with snow preservation - at least that is what LBO is touting.

I'm not so sure that the Balsams will have that big a difference on Jay and Burke. I think it'll more impact Sunday River and Sugarloaf. Definitely there are only a finite number of skiers who will travel 3.5+ hours from Boston and MA to ski a Jay/SR/SL, but Balsams is in northeast NH, 1ish hour from Sunday River. I doubt Jay will lose many skiers because of that. Different worlds.
 

James

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On Monday at Kilington we met people who came from Montreal on a bus. Left st 5am. Can't imagine they'd go to Burke, but they do go to Jay.
 

Muleski

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The separation of Burke Mountain Academy and Burke Mountain is something that has been on my mind in this mess.
On a scale of 1-10, how much of a mess is this?

It's no mess at all for BMA, if they work hand in glove with the new owner. For BMA to deliver on their mission, that is essential. With the Federal Receiver mandated to sell at the highest possible price, that takes this relationship off the table. For that reason, I think that BMA will buy it {if the bidding is remotely reasonable}, then work to find a long term owner what will work closely with them. By, "BMA" I mean the community, could be any number of stakeholders. Burkies are a loyal bunch.

How does the proposed Balsalms project affect this mess? Certainly if realized in some form it would be competition for the NEK? Not like it's easy to get anyone to go up there.

I think the key words are "If Realized". Les has always dreamed big, and plenty of doubters on this. The most logical comments that I have heard, or questions, are centered around where his customers will come from. He's going to ned to get people to abandon where they are currently based. Not an easy sell, I'm told. I don't see overlap with Burke or Jay.

Agree, which is why I said that what does seem questionable is the rational for Vail, Alterra or Peak to consider buying Jay.
Skiing Jay is one thing. Having it be a part of your multi-mountain pass is yet another thing. Owning it, that is a completely different world.

Agree 100%. Or more! Well said. It could be a very tough business venture.

I would be interested to know Jay's numbers, meaning how many skier visits.

I think that Jay's biggest year ever just topped 300K skier visits. It's not small in that respect. I'd be more interested to know how many are day trippers. It's quite a lot, I believe.

Snow is better than Burke and not as good and not nearly as much as Jay, at least that's my guess. They certainly get snow up there, but the location really shines with snow preservation - at least that is what LBO is touting.

I'm not so sure that the Balsams will have that big a difference on Jay and Burke. I think it'll more impact Sunday River and Sugarloaf. Definitely there are only a finite number of skiers who will travel 3.5+ hours from Boston and MA to ski a Jay/SR/SL, but Balsams is in northeast NH, 1ish hour from Sunday River. I doubt Jay will lose many skiers because of that. Different worlds.

I'm a long term Sugarloaf skier. Also began skiing at Sunday River long before it became what it is today. I go back to the early 70's there. Key factor with Sugarloaf is that a huge percentage of the skier base are pass holders who own there, or seasonally rent. Many more own. The actual numbers ar ehard to pin down, but something like 75-80% of the condo's and homes on the mountain {roughly 1000} are never rented and used by their owners every weekend. Rabid fans. They aren't going anywhere. Also, no big LBO fans.
Sunday River is much the same . You don't have third and fourth generation Sunday River skiers, but you have big, big numbers of every weekend skiers and owners. Both areas have some of the largest junior programs in the country. Again, you put down roots in your ski community, and pulling them away is not easy. I hear of potential investors who push Les hard on this subject of where his customers will come from, and what hard research he has to back it up, and I think it's a bit "up in the air." I live on Boston's North Shore, and in our town there are a pretty big number of families who ski/own in Maine, and in VT {Stowe, Sugarbush, Okemo,}.
We'll see what happens with the Balsams.

On Monday at Kilington we met people who came from Montreal on a bus. Left st 5am. Can't imagine they'd go to Burke, but they do go to Jay.

Multi day bus trips.....or one day? Just curious. When we owned in Stowe, many of our neighbors came from Montreal. Big numbers. And they seemed to "support the local economy" in big numbers.
 

Muleski

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They have announced they will go up for sale in May....as a packaged deal.

I think that makes my thinking that a group tied to BMA would buy Burke less likely. I guess they could partner with a group interested in Jay, they split it up as of the closing. Just sounds more complex.

Not sure if bundling them together will yield the best results. Sum of the parts might exceed the total.

Have to think there are better minds than mine working on this. Will be interesting to see unfold.
 
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TheArchitect

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Well, it's June. Has there been any rumblings on a sale? With the news of Vail buying Okemo, Sunapee and Crested Butte I'm wondering if Alterra might decide they want Jay Peak to offset Vail's move.
 

Tricia

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Well, Unofficial networks is rumbling and members fo this site are talking about the possibilities with Vail and Alterra.
 

Philpug

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Jay reminds me of Kirkwood, great mountain that is tough to get to and you have to bypass a lot of good skiing to get there. Both have their loyal followings but will that tranfer to dollars at other resorts? Will/do those skiers travel to their otehr properties? Other than adding another peice of real estate to the collection for Vail or Alterra, I am not sure what owning Jay/Burke really does for them? What is the financial draw?
 

James

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Jay could position itself as the anti- Steaux with better snow. Except if Vail buys it.
 

TheArchitect

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Jay gets a lot of Montrealer's. So Alterra with Tremblant to the north would make sense. But as Philpug says, it's in the middle of no man's land.

You beat me to it. Lot's of Canadians ski at Jay Otherwise I agree with what Phil is saying about passing a lot of good ski areas. I have a very hard time driving past Sugarbush.
 

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