Can Hurricane Irma help predict 2017-2018 snowfall?

Discussion in 'General Skiing' started by MountainMonster, Sep 11, 2017.

  1. MountainMonster

    MountainMonster like butta Skier

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  2. TonyC

    TonyC Out on the slopes Skier

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    The most obvious difference between now and September 2010 is that we were experiencing the strongest La Nina since 1955 in September 2010 and El Nino/La Nina is dead neutral now. So I think we know where the leading influence upon the 2010-11 snow season came from.
     
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  3. DoryBreaux

    DoryBreaux Nerd Pugski Ski Tester Industry Insider

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    Don't bust our bubbles like that!
     
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  4. jack97

    jack97 Booting up Skier

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    Never been a tracker of the (Atlantic) hurricane season other than there appears to be a strong correlation to the state of the AMO and the ACE index. That said, there appears to some correlation to the AMO and PDO on how much snow we will get at the respective coast. Here's JB prelim for the upcoming winter. Just hope the Siberian snowpack confirms this for the Northeast as well.

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. TonyC

    TonyC Out on the slopes Skier

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    That map is really sticking one's neck out in forecasting. Snowfalls in excess of 133% or below 67% for an entire season are not that common.

    Out of the past 42 seasons, number of seasons >+ 133% and <=67%
    California, 9 high, 9 low, not a surprise for the most volatile region
    Pacific NW: 1 high, 3 low
    Interior Western Canada: No season outside the 67-133% range, the most consistent region
    US Northern Rockies: 1 high, 3 low
    Utah: 3 high, 4 low
    Northern & Central Colorado: 1 high, 1 low
    Southwest: 2 high, 2 low
    Northeast, 1 high, 3 low

    Odds are high this is going to be one of those laughable maps by the end of the season.

    Just to show how far out on a limb this prediction is, the average expectation of snowfall during a strong La Nina season at the most favored areas is in the 120% range.
     
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2017
  6. jack97

    jack97 Booting up Skier

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    Agreed with the odds. However JB and his team favors analog and teleconnection. He made an early forecast in the spring/summer that this fall would be a bad hurricane season for US. This under the backdrop that the US south east has had a hurricane drought for 11-12 years.

    IMO, he's been right more than wrong on these long term forecast and he will tweak them based on the teleconnections as the months proceed. IMO the above map and the upcoming Siberian snowpack are akin to foreplay...... before the skiing season begins.
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2017
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  7. TonyC

    TonyC Out on the slopes Skier

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    I've been reading about the October Siberia snowpack as a leading indicator for eastern North America winter temperatures for a few recent seasons. This story from a year ago explains the logic, and also why it doesn't apply to western North America. https://www.usatoday.com/story/weat...ow-cover-us-winter-weather-forecast/92780516/

    This indicator has supposedly been correct 75% of the time since 1999. But of course it's only Sept.14 now. Perhaps this JB should be waiting until the end of October to publish that forecast map.
     
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  8. jack97

    jack97 Booting up Skier

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    JB (Joe Bastardi) likes to push his limits by making bolder long range forecast.... that's the nature of the beast. He uses the AO (Arctic Oscillation) teleconnection which indicates a strong or weaken polar vortex along with the Siberian snowpack as a factor for forecast.

    Judah Cohen the founder of the Siberian snow pack correlation, he has a twitter account which tracks the AO and the snow pack. I think he is honing in on where the snow pack occurs and how persistence it is during the fall to make a more accurate forecast.
     
  9. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Resident Weatherman Industry Insider

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    I always thought JB's forecasts were mainly ENSO focused, like the majority of seasonal forecasts in the US. I kind of take his statements with a high degree of caution due to his AGW stance. Judah is the only one I know who is serious about looking into the Siberian Snow Pack. Siberian Snow Pack and the AO is a good predictor for the East, MJO for the West. MJO is a shorter term predictor, however you can use ENSO among other things to estimate what the MJO will do.
     
  10. jack97

    jack97 Booting up Skier

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    Just before and during winter, JB will show the teleconnections (including the MJO) and analogs he has researched. He will even show graphs from Cohen's blog/twitter. JB along with Bernie Rayno are the ones I follow once the storms comes rolling in. The majority of outlets of just regurgitate the NWS.

    BTW, JB along with most private forecasting companies do not believe in the high influence of AGW, JB is just more vocal since it is not science base but faith based. Cohen has to be careful since he relies on government research grant, so his writings are somewhat cryptic about this subject matter.
     
  11. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Resident Weatherman Industry Insider

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    Analogs are useless, so don't know why he uses those. It's good that he shows the teleconnections.

    AFAIK Weatherbell is the only firm with mainly anti AGW mets. Accuweather has Global Warming articles and etc. And they are meteorologists, not climatologists. So I kind of take their opinions with a pinch of salt.
     
  12. RuleMiHa

    RuleMiHa Getting on the lift Skier

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    I think (Hope)ium is a wonderful drug and we should all indulge in it (as far as winter skiing expectations are concerned) and enjoy whichever forecast makes us happiest until proven otherwise. Reality will arrive at the same time regardless.
     
  13. Hard Pack

    Hard Pack Booting up Skier

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    Of course Hurricane Irma can be used to predict North American snowfall! And sheep's bladders can be employed to prevent earthquakes. (That's for all your Monty Python fans out there.) For me, the only way to look at all these winter forecasts is the same as reading horoscopes: maybe (MAYBE) they come true, but if they don't, hey, there's always next week (or year). I've been following JB since he was with AccuWeather doing the long range forecasts, and I can tell you what he's going to say this season when the arctic cold and snow don't come by mid-January, but come later in the winter: "Delayed, not denied." I agree with Tony C that JB sticking his neck out, but he tends to do that because he apparently likes attention.
     
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  14. Jellybeans1000

    Jellybeans1000 Resident Weatherman Industry Insider

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    That I can agree on.
     

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