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Alterra acquires Arapahoe Basin.

dbostedo

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After all, customers vote with their pocket book, and errors like excessive overcrowding have consequences.
Wouldn't that be self-regulating though? I.e. if it's crowded, people must not mind the crowds too much.

Maybe folks on here, and the folks that complain, are a lot more sensitive to crowding than a lot of the customers.
 

Dave Marshak

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Wouldn't that be self-regulating though? I.e. if it's crowded, people must not mind the crowds too much.

Maybe folks on here, and the folks that complain, are a lot more sensitive to crowding than a lot of the customers.
That’s the myth of the self regulating market. The truth is markets sometimes fall into a downward spiral and even the most efficient markets usually develop some kind of monopoly (eg: Standard Oil , Epic, Ikon). That’s why government regulation of markets exists. When the government steps in to correct a market failure, typically the wealthy are bailed out first but the money runs out before the nearly affluent are saved. If left unchecked, the whole process ends in political instability and sometimes even violence.

dm
 

Dave Marshak

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Right for the owners of course. But that usually coincides with right for the customers as well, at least in the long short run. After all, customers vote with their pocket book, and errors like excessive overcrowding have consequences.
FIFY
Private equity firms more often try to make everyone happy while they take the cash out a fast as possible, then sell out and move on

dm
 

dbostedo

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That’s the myth of the self regulating market. The truth is markets sometimes fall into a downward spiral and even the most efficient markets usually develop some kind of monopoly (eg: Standard Oil , Epic, Ikon). That’s why government regulation of markets exists. When the government steps in to correct a market failure, typically the wealthy are bailed out first but the money runs out before the nearly affluent are saved. If left unchecked, the whole process ends in political instability and sometimes even violence.

dm
I'm not sure how that relates to a single ski resort getting so crowded that people stop coming, thus preventing further crowding? That's all I was referring to - not the market as a whole.
 

Dave Marshak

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I'm not sure how that relates to a single ski resort getting so crowded that people stop coming, thus preventing further crowding? That's all I was referring to - not the market as a whole.
It’s not a single ski resort. It’s all the resorts and is a market thing. When you buy your pass in August you think it’s cheap, but by January you realize that they’re not providing the experience you expected, and you took all their weather risk as well. They can only get away with that because of monopoly market power.

dm
 

dbostedo

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It’s not a single ski resort. It’s all the resorts and is a market thing. When you buy your pass in August you think it’s cheap, but by January you realize that they’re not providing the experience you expected, and you took all their weather risk as well. They can only get away with that because of monopoly market power.

dm
But if the places are too crowded, you go elsewhere next year. Or if you re-up, apparently they weren't too crowded.
 

Dave Marshak

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Elsewhere is too crowded too. You go back anyway because you are an addict. That’s how monopoly works.

dm
 

crosscountry

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Elsewhere is too crowded too. You go back anyway because you are an addict. That’s how monopoly works.

dm
But that’s not true. There’re plenty of “other places” that aren’t crowded.

It’s just those aren’t the same mountain. It’s up to the customer to choose between an “iconic” resort that’s too crowded and a lessor known one without the crowd.

The customers with spare change had voted largely to favor the crowded ones. They not only not mind the crowd, they don’t mind the cost of burger and lessons too.

I agree it’s self-regulating. It hasn’t hit the point of driving away the customers yet. Or it may have started, just not yet to a large scale. Those who’re moaning here, have they gone to the less crowded places? I have. I haven’t seen too many following me though. (I’m happy about that though)
 

Dave Marshak

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But that’s not true. There’re plenty of “other places” that aren’t crowded.

It’s just those aren’t the same mountain. It’s up to the customer to choose between an “iconic” resort that’s too crowded and a lessor known one without the crowd.

The customers with spare change had voted largely to favor the crowded ones. They not only not mind the crowd, they don’t mind the cost of burger and lessons too.

I agree it’s self-regulating. It hasn’t hit the point of driving away the customers yet. Or it may have started, just not yet to a large scale. Those who’re moaning here, have they gone to the less crowded places? I have. I haven’t seen too many following me though. (I’m happy about that though)
The market is dominated by Vail and Ikon. You may think you are not affected if you choose other mountains but they will just raise their prices and let service deteriorate to more or less match the Vail offering. But really, are you gonna go to Monarch or Cooper instead of Vail or Steamboat? Maybe “the market “ builds more lifts and hotels and airports and all the other stuff you need to compete with Vail, but it hasn’t happened yet.
The “self regulating market “ is just 18th century ideology. The reality is that markets often crash. (See the panics of the 19th century, the Great Depression or the financial crisis of 2008. ) Or maybe they self regulate by crashing, but that implies unacceptable consequences for far too many people.
I’m gonna quit this thread because I made a good living thinking about this kind of stuff but no one is paying me for it here.

dm
 

crosscountry

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You may think you are not affected if you choose other mountains but they will just raise their prices and let service deteriorate to more or less match the Vail offering.
I’m not naive enough to think I’m “not affected”. You’re talking about economy. I’m talking about crowds. Those ”other mountains” may be raising their prices. But they aren’t getting crowded as you suggested, as long as they’re not part of Vail/Alterra.

Yes, the market is dominated by Vail/Alterra. But there’re still plenty of other mountains one can ski. That’s the part you seem oblivious.

“No one is paying” you for your thoughts because this is a collection of people who are very much price insensitive. Their only complain is the cheap passes by Vail/Alterra is making the mountain too crowded. This whole business about A-basin is all about crowds not price. Your talk about price is very much preaching to the choir.

But really, are you gonna go to Monarch or Cooper instead of Vail or Steamboat?
The answer is YES! I just did. The equivalence of Monarch/Cooper in the northeast Instead of the Eastern equivalence of Vail/Steamboat. (I’ve also skied Monarch too)

It’s so refreshing to not having to worry about what time to arrive at the mountain without having to walk a mile from my car to the base lodge. In two of the mountains, I arrived well after 9am and still parked at 2nd row from the door of the lodge. This was on a day that every mountain is getting 7-8”, which is a big deal in the east. The only drawback was I didn’t have anyone to share a chair to chit chat with! ;)

I can easily afford the lift ticket price of any of big name mountains. I just didn’t think it’s good value. Others may feel differently. With the cheap passes of the big name mountains, why should anyone be so foolish to pay full price AND stand in line? (If I were to stand in long lift lines, the least I can do is to buy an Epic pass! ;) )
 
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jmeb

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The idea of "crowded" and replacability depends a lot on whether you're a visiting tourist or a family whos kids are in school M-F looking to ski.

Monarch and Cooper are 2.5hrs from the center of skiing population in CO. That's 2x as far than Abasin (presuming reasonable weather in all cases.) Acting like they are substitutes isn't just down to terrain, but ability to reasonably day trip.

And I don't know when you last skied Monarch, but you can't just willy nilly drive up on a weekend in prime ski season and expect a parking spot anymore; let alone a legit 6in+ powder day.

Abasins bing owned by Alterra is almost certainly going to increase skier traffic -- else you wouldn't start to see things like $20 parking reservations on weekends. That leaves 1 uncrowded mountain within 2hrs of front range metro for day trippers. And that mountain has seen parking at capacity (e.g. you have no place to park; period -- drive home) over a dozen days this season.
 

dbostedo

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The idea of "crowded" and replacability depends a lot on whether you're a visiting tourist or a family whos kids are in school M-F looking to ski.

Monarch and Cooper are 2.5hrs from the center of skiing population in CO. That's 2x as far than Abasin (presuming reasonable weather in all cases.) Acting like they are substitutes isn't just down to terrain, but ability to reasonably day trip.

And I don't know when you last skied Monarch, but you can't just willy nilly drive up on a weekend in prime ski season and expect a parking spot anymore; let alone a legit 6in+ powder day.

Abasins bing owned by Alterra is almost certainly going to increase skier traffic -- else you wouldn't start to see things like $20 parking reservations on weekends. That leaves 1 uncrowded mountain within 2hrs of front range metro for day trippers. And that mountain has seen parking at capacity (e.g. you have no place to park; period -- drive home) over a dozen days this season.
Somewhat off topic, but I'm really, really curious what the NSAA skier-visits number is going to be for this season. There was a decent upturn since 2021, that looks likely to have continued based on the crowding talk on this site. (Though I know that's anecdotal, and maybe not representative of all ski resorts).

Here's a graph (with 2020 artificially made equal to 2021, as an estimate)... will 2024 be even higher and a new record? (Data comes out in May, I think. Though it is also an estimate, it seems to be the best thing we have for NA.)

1711375943830.png
 

coskigirl

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Somewhat off topic, but I'm really, really curious what the NSAA skier-visits number is going to be for this season. There was a decent upturn since 2021, that looks likely to have continued based on the crowding talk on this site. (Though I know that's anecdotal, and maybe not representative of all ski resorts).

Here's a graph (with 2020 artificially made equal to 2021, as an estimate)... will 2024 be even higher and a new record? (Data comes out in May, I think. Though it is also an estimate, it seems to be the best thing we have for NA.)

View attachment 230928

Vail Resorts recently released numbers saying their skier visits are actually down this winter although with recent storms that may change in the overall season numbers.

 

crosscountry

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I don't know when you last skied Monarch, but you can't just willy nilly drive up on a weekend in prime ski season and expect a parking spot anymore; let alone a legit 6in+ powder day.
I haven't skied Monarch since the pandemic. But I was responding to someone who proclaim Monarch isn't a good substitute for those mountains in the mega pass. In that proclamation, Steamboat was also mentioned. So I took it to mean terrain/size, not distance from population center.

Also, in the context of this thread, A-basin is in very much the same situation as Monarch. Limited parking but fairly good lift capacity and crowd free slopes. So there's not much reason to pass by A-basin to go to Monarch. But there's plenty of reason to bypass Keystone/Breck to go to Monarch/Loveland.

Your point is valid in that Monarch is outside of day tripping distance from Denver. But that's a Colorado specific situation. While that situation is repeated in some part of northeast also, it's by no means universal. My point being, the crowding hasn't reached the point that would drive people to less crowded mountains. Not for most people anyway. People don't seem to mind the long lift lines and crowded slopes. (it drove me to less crowded mountains, but I'm glad the majority isn't doing the same and making the "less crowded" mountains equally crowded)

There will come a point, when the population had increased so much that there simply isn't enough place for them to ski. But that point isn't here yet. Judging from the lopsided number of people who ski in crowded mountains over the less crowded ones. Instead, there's pressure to find parking (A-basin/Loveland/Monarch) and road capacity (I-70, Cottonwood Canyon). One may even suspect that some ski area managements are using parking as a capacity throttle to limit the number of people on the hill. But if not, then there's even stronger preference for people to want to ski in those mountains for the better skiing experience.
 
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Mike King

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What's a reasonable commute time to consider day tripping from Denver? Given the I70 (@#$%show, 2.5 hours one way may be an improvement for many front rangers...

I've noticed quite a few more visitors on weekends here in Aspen from front range folk. It seems busy to us locals, but it seems deserted to our visitors.
 

James

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Things aren’t “free” to regulate. People have house and jobs and kids in programs near resorts and don’t go vagabonding around different ski areas every weekend. Come on.

That’s clearly been calculated into the model of what mountains are being purchased here.
 

jmeb

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My point being, the crowding hasn't reached the point that would drive people to less crowded mountains.

I've noticed quite a few more visitors on weekends here in Aspen from front range folk.

Thanks to @Mike King for making my point for me.

People are certainly driving to less crowded mountains -- frequently in CO. Monarch has all time visitors from talking to people involved in the op, Loveland has filled parking over a dozen times this season.

Parking limits the crowded feeling. While the spin from ski areas is that it is great for the experience; every one of them (Loveland, Abasin, Monarch) are looking to expand parking to fill up additional capacity.

As for what is reasonable commute from Denver...I don't know. People have wild ideas about reasonableness.
 

crosscountry

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People are certainly driving to less crowded mountains -- frequently in CO. Monarch has all time visitors from talking to people involved in the op, Loveland has filled parking over a dozen times this season.
But we don't know if more people are driving there because it's less crowded than say Keystone. Or there's simply more people skiing?

Just about all types of outdoor recreation had increased significantly. It's not just skiing.

People are suggesting the cheap pass is making those big resorts crowded. I'll buy that argument. What isn't clear to me is whether people are moving to less crowded mountains to escape the crowd? Or because it's cheaper to ski in those resorts without a pass? Or, there're simply more people skiing so all mountains are simply seeing more people?

Here in the east, we don't have that limitation of distance you guys have in Colorado. I just went skiing in some non-mega-pass-affiliated mountains, some of them just down the road from the big resorts. There was no crowd.
 

jmeb

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But we don't know if more people are driving there because it's less crowded than say Keystone. Or there's simply more people skiing?

You're right; I haven't done a scientific survey. But when I wear a red jacket at one of these "uncrowded" places people talk to me most every lift ride and a very common refrain is coming over to Loveland to escape the crowds. I hear the same thing when I'm im skiing at Monarch. I also work in the snow industry and hear the same refrain from my boss in Leadville (ski cooper), coworkers in Salida (monarch) and heck even my coworker on the western slope (powderhorn.)

I'm sure there are more people skiing. I'm also pretty positive from my direct experience that a large number of people are seeking out less crowded mountains than even just a decade ago when I got back into skiing.
 

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