Western US could lose up to 60% of the annual snowpack in the next 30 years

[crgildart]

I just don't see CO2 as a pollutant since it is required for all plant life on this planet.

So are feecees, but too much dung is a bad thing and very dangerous. Just about every material is "pollution" when it exceeds the level which causes instability.

 

[CharlieP]

So are feecees, but too much dung is a bad thing and very dangerous. Just about every material is "pollution" when it exceeds the level which causes instability.

Aug 11, 2017

Agreed. See the website attached below which describes the environmental pressures caused by horse manure in our major cities during the late 1800s. For example,

"In 1894, the Times of London estimated that by 1950 every street in the city would be buried nine feet deep in horse manure. One New York prognosticator of the 1890s concluded that by 1930 the horse droppings would rise to Manhattan’s third-story windows."

And the wholly unanticipated solution to this problem on the horizon was:

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No, not skis, but,

The Internal Combustion Engine.

Think snow,

CP

https://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2011/03/29/the-horse-manure-problem/

ps: what goes around, comes around.

 

[Pete in Idaho]

There are some really smart people here on Pugski. There is a difference of opinion but a very civil tone is used which is rather refreshing in todays world.

There were some comments on my statement about not entering into an investigation with a preconceived solution. I think a few people have mixed up "investigation" with research and they are different. As an investigator you are searching for the truth not researching to prove/backup/rationalize your preconceived opinion. Two cents worth, this is happening constantly in the global warming hypothesis. Example: for 4 years the arctic and antartic have been melting. 4 years is absolutely nothing in the realm of time and earth-nothing.

 

[jack97]

Four years is a laughably short period of time to be drawing any conclusions whatsoever about weather in view of volatility. I can find periods of a decade where Mammoth snowfall averages 20% above or below the long term average.

Also the graph posted was from Colorado, where winter rain is essentially zero. Colorado could well be the last ski region in the world to see any impact from warming temperatures that could be having severe effects elsewhere.


The Greenland/Antarctica ice sheet melting is complex. It's obvious that glaciers near the edge are melting more water into the ocean. However these climates are extremely dry, and since warmer air can hold more water vapor, it may snow more. The additional snow offsets the melting loss to some degree, and like everything involved with weather, it can take decades to get past the volatility and learn the true trend.

The four years may be laughable but the median and mean comparison of a data set since 1981 is not. To me it's telling of how "stable" the trend has been.

 

[François Pugh]

I think a bigger piece of the pie should be spent on research into how best to adapt to climate change; I think we may be able to slow it down, giving us more time to adapt, but it will happening. That is, unless we do something crazy like seed the atmosphere with particulates and induce an other ice-age which would be much worse.

 

[jack97]

^^^ Another ice age (climate minimum) may be or may not be upon us. Solar physicists and mathematicians from around the world has been studying this. An AGU conference held during 2009, one scientist a made prediction that it will likely be a Dalton.

Next cycle is 25, should start 2019 and ends 2030 ,Professor Valentina Zharkova has developed a prediction model and she believes we are heading toward a minimum. Already she has been ridicule by the alarmist which is how science should not be carried out. This will give an indication of whether solar activity is a driver. And I'm not talking about solar forcing, there are other processes in play in terms of the sun.

 

[TonyC]

The above sunspot theory had a lot of traction back in 2008 and 2009 when the past solar minimum was both extremely quiet and the cycle was over a year longer than the average 11 years. Both of these portended a Dalton-like sustained minimum. And of course we were in that pause period in global temperatures at that time.

The solar maximum in 2012-2014 was much weaker than average but not as weak as the Dalton analogy would have predicted. Of course, if temperatures continue on their upward trend despite a Dalton-like quiet sunspot era, that gives more traction to the greenhouse gas hypothesis.

 

[jack97]

True, the sunspot theory and ghg are just hypothesis for now, both will need to explain causality on why proxies from around the world that the medieval warmth period was warmer than it is today.

So today, we sit here and debate how we can control warming? Well we have been warming before our time. The earth will also cool again.

 

[TonyC]

I for one am quite convinced that the Medieval Warming was likely warmer than where are are now. Thus it does not serve the climate change advocates well to assert that now is warmer than anytime in 1,000+ years. None of this changes the argument that the current warming trend needs to be arrested at some point before the economic and political costs of doing nothing far exceed the costs of taking sensible action.

Sunspots were not measured before roughly Galileo's time, so we really don't know what they were during the Medieval Warming. There are lots of data issues with measuring climate retroactively. Even crude direct temperature measurements date to mid 19th century at the earliest. Direct satellite measurement of Arctic sea ice dates to 1979. It would be great to know how much Arctic sea ice loss there was during the Medieval Warming but I doubt that is possible.

 

[albertanskigirl]

Hi @TonyC - the medieval warming comparison is actually a bit of a straw man - it's considered to be like comparing apples and oranges for many climate scientists.

For one, most climate scientists aren't necessarily interested in actual temperatures, but temperature increases - so maybe the medieval period was warmer, but it also didn't warm as rapidly as the earth is warming now despite us being in a very low period of volcanic activity. secondly, the warming trend for the medieval period is true for the north atlantic, which raises global averages, but certainly other places (like around the equator) were notably cooler. Part of the problem with the idea of medieval warming is that it is centered on Europe for data, but Europe is not a proxy for global averages. this is why many climate scientists actually eschew the idea of looking at global average temperatures as a good indicator for climate change - we have to focus on aggregating local scenarios rather than relying on averaging global measurement scales.

lastly, the idea that the medieval period was actually warmer than now has been disputed by a number of researchers, especially since the mid-2000s. a really great introduction to the problems of comparison, how to judge warming, and the complications of measuring warming is a report put out by the National Academy of Sciences:

https://www.nap.edu/read/11676/chapter/1

the evidence is actually contradictory - ice cores and tree rings don't match up with atmospheric data, and climate models are all over the map. We can't say with any certainty that the medieval period was warmer.

 

[jack97]

We can't say with any certainty that the medieval period was warmer.

Explain then why the receding Swiss Alps glaciers are now exposing passage ways where they are now finding Roman and Medieval relics.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/new-details-emerge-about-neolithic-age-in-alps/1014380


Over at North America, a receding glacier has expose ancient tree stumps dating back 1000 - 2000 years.

http://juneauempire.com/outdoors/2013-09-13/ancient-trees-emerge-frozen-forest-tomb


Yes these could be localize regional events and they could not be. However the ghg theory has to show why this happened before and now the receding glacier events are catastrophic. And in light of sea levels rising since 7500 years ago.

http://www.ancient-origins.net/news...er-village-oldest-olive-oil-production-020131

 

[TonyC]

I think the preponderance of evidence from Europe is that it was warmer there during the Medieval Warming. The debate is whether that was a regional or worldwide phenomenon. I don't know where those South China Sea charts came from, but that's a more tropical region also supporting the theory. The Anasazi crash was also during this time frame, though I guess we don't know whether drier also meant warmer there.

There are reports from SE England (A reference on Epic, now lost) that sea level was relatively high, then retreated some by the Little Ice Age. However, the Medieval Warming period was the heyday of Venice, which means that sea level changes must not have been too extreme.

 

[crgildart]

Over at North America, a receding glacier has expose ancient tree stumps dating back 1000 - 2000 years.

http://juneauempire.com/outdoors/2013-09-13/ancient-trees-emerge-frozen-forest-tomb

There are all kinds of geological, volcanic, and tectonic reasons why ice may not have formed in a few isolated places during otherwise massive ice age conditions..


The article admits that these are anomalies and doesn't even hypothesize that it is evidence of warmer global conditions at that time..

"Today, the Taku Glacier is the only glacier of the 32 from the Juneau ice-field to be slowly advancing, pushing live cottonwoods out of the way. After the ice advance in the 1700s, most glaciers have been retreating, especially in the second half of the 20th century, Motyka said.

So far at the Mendenhall, the melting ice is only revealing trees."

 

[Wendy]

I just don't see CO2 as a pollutant since it is required for all plant life on this planet.

So is water, and oxygen....but too much of both can be deadly to much of life on Earth.

 

[jack97]

...and doesn't even hypothesize that it is evidence of warmer global conditions at that time..

Yes, they are trying to do true science.

 

[jack97]

So is water, and oxygen....but too much of both can be deadly to much of life on Earth.

Seems earth is greening as least objectively from the sky.

And feeding the important grains to people.

Corn

Wheat

 

[albertanskigirl]

Explain then why the receding Swiss Alps glaciers are now exposing passage ways where they are now finding Roman and Medieval relics.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/new-details-emerge-about-neolithic-age-in-alps/1014380


Over at North America, a receding glacier has expose ancient tree stumps dating back 1000 - 2000 years.

http://juneauempire.com/outdoors/2013-09-13/ancient-trees-emerge-frozen-forest-tomb


Yes these could be localize regional events and they could not be. However the ghg theory has to show why this happened before and now the receding glacier events are catastrophic. And in light of sea levels rising since 7500 years ago.

http://www.ancient-origins.net/news...er-village-oldest-olive-oil-production-020131

I'm pretty done with this thread - last post for me.

But FWIW, glaciers actually move. Finding things under glaciers doesn't mean that there were no glaciers in existence before. It just means that they were elsewhere.

Glacier movement is how we get amazing features like cirques that we all like to ski: a glacier travelled over the mountain and left a cirque behind.

A great overview is found here, on a website which soon may not exist because NSIDC is on the chopping block:

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/glaciers/questions/move.html

ASG out.

 

[jack97]

But FWIW, glaciers actually move. Finding things under glaciers doesn't mean that there were no glaciers in existence before. It just means that they were elsewhere.

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Thick glaciers move smaller objects from uphill to downhill, this can be seen by plucking, abrasion and the debris field left behind. By knowing where the roman and medieval relics where uncover, the debris and the topography, geologist and archaeologist could deduce where in the higher elevation regions, the relics where first dropped. As a side note, parts and personal belongings has been found at lower elevation decades later where a jet plane crashed into a glacier at higher elevation.

I have not read of a glacial process where object from downhill can be moved uphill.

 

[Pete in Idaho]

Ah graphs and charts, statistics - what do you want - it can be proven.

FACT. In 1300's vikings grew corn in Greenland - now that is global warming.

The past 100 yrs, the industrial revolution are both in relation to time a mere grain of sand on every beach in the world. Mankind itself is only one micron bigger in relation to the time this planet has orbited the Sun.

Mankind is such a narcisstic enity.

 

[Tony Storaro]

Mankind itself is only one micron bigger in relation to the time this planet has orbited the Sun.

Mankind is such a narcisstic enity.