New England Vail Buys Stowe Mountain Resort (updated Title)

[Monique]

You're cheap! I don't know what slope-side residences in Aspen go for, but I'm guessing it's more than $1M. Plus I'd need to hire staff to do the cooking, cleaning, ski maintenance, daily massages, etc. Maybe a million a month?

All I want is a walk-to 3 bedroom in Breck. I'm frugal - I don't even require staff!

 

[Read Blinn]

Actually, I got the fortune wrong, according to my wife (from whom I thought I got the $16 billion number). He's only worth $11 billion, and he doesn't show up on the Forbes list (private company, reclusive owner): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-new-hampshires-invisible-grocery-billionaire

See also: https://nonprofitquarterly.org/2014...hest-person-in-a-list-of-wealthiest-by-state/ There are plenty of other sources, but this is interesting because it talks about his philanthropic organization, which strives to end human rights abuse (among other things) — ironic considering his company's reputation as a workplace. But however.

He also owns homes in Jackson, Wyoming, and Ogunquit, Maine, so he wouldn't probably require a Stowe address, and, apparently, he wouldn't go for flashy.

Still, money like that makes enormously expensive stuff trivial. It's hard to get a brain around numbers so high.

 

[Philpug]

@Tricia saw this at SIA and we had to chuckle.....



Coincidence?

 

[quant]

This discussion is silly. Look at the f2#$ing income statement! Real estate development is a pipe dream to add significant revenue to Vail's revenues. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/812011/000081201116000182/mtn20161031q1.htm

The problems with RE are that: 1) High-end RE sales are fickle, going up and down with the economy. 2) There is a limited amount of RE to sell on any mountain. Once it is gone, it is gone. 3) The expenses are high relative to other operating segments.

The presale of lift tickets is part of the business model. Other parts include filling those beds during the summer months ("Lodging") and all that on-mountain revenue.

Meeting or exceeding customer expectations is what Vail does, and they do a good job of it. The EPIC Pass does indeed give more bang for the buck. For tourists? A perfect example came from a Facebook friend yesterday (haven't seen him since high school) who posted a video "skiing" along Skyline Trail. To most people at PUGSKI Skyline is probably viewed as a flat and necessary evil to get to Mott and Killebrew. To the average tourist, it is indeed "heavenly" on a sunny day because the view of the lake is indeed breathtaking...a "KODAK Moment." On hill food prices? No problem for many vacationers from the east coast feeder hills. They are having expectations met or exceeded and are thrilled to stay on the mountain for lunch.

Again, I don't think Stowe fits in the MTN business model for the reasons outlined earlier.

 

[James]

Well if the houses or "townhomes" are rentable there's that business plus maintenance. What other model for generating income from mtn land is there?

 

[Erik Timmerman]

My understanding is that part of why this is taking so long is because Vail wants to leave much of the Real Estate out of the transaction. I hear that this includes the new Adventure Center which SMR rents from Spruce Peak Realty. It's complicated. But as far as I hear, the deal is done. Has been for a few weeks.

 

[Erik Timmerman]

Oh yeah, there was a helicopter flying laps around the mountain today with one of those big camera mounts under the nose. Must be filming for Vail, right?

 

[James]

So is Spruce Peak Realty separate from Stowe Mt Resort and SMR is not making anything on the real estate?

 

[Erik Timmerman]

So is Spruce Peak Realty separate from Stowe Mt Resort and SMR is not making anything on the real estate?

Well, they both belong to AIG, but yes, they are separate. So is Stowe Mt Lodge. I think there are 4 companies in all, and in addition to that, the hotel is run by Destination Hotel and Resorts. It all makes it kind of hard to unravel.

 

[Muleski]

Based on how Vail "Village" is structured and has been developed over the years, there is no better group to have at the table to unravel this and make a deal, than VR! Things are very complicated to say the least in Vail.

This is going to be interesting to see unfold. I also hear, from a couple of guys in the Rockies that this was agreed to in principle some time ago. Got zero details.

 

[Mike Thomas]

Oh yeah, there was a helicopter flying laps around the mountain today with one of those big camera mounts under the nose. Must be filming for Vail, right?

Was it a red helicopter?

Because there was a red helicopter circling Mad River Glen yesterday... uh oh!

 

[Read Blinn]

This is how rumors get legs.

 

[cantunamunch]

Was it a red helicopter?

Because there was a red helicopter circling Mad River Glen yesterday... uh oh!

Well, so long as it wasn't doing terrain LIDAR at the Balsams...

 

[James]

I thought They used black helicopters.
Don't forget the clouds. There's a conspiracy theory to them too. Someone here even was posting diabolical cloud pictures.

Will Vail try to seed the clouds?
This is going on in Colorado, Idaho, and was in Alpine Meadows. Edit-all over the place including flatlands to prevent hail.

Remote Cloud Seeding Operations to be Installed in Colorado Mountains
SEP 6, 2016
http://www.weathernationtv.com/news/remote-cloud-seeding-operations-installed-colorado-mountains/

Alpine Meadows 2014:

It's Not Magic On The Mountain, It's A Rain-Making Machine
http://www.npr.org/2014/01/09/261070150/its-not-magic-on-the-mountain-its-a-rain-making-machine

Idaho:

Does cloud seeding really work?
Researchers are combining studies of ice formation with remote-sensing techniques to give rainmaking scheme a firm scientific footing
By Janet Pelley, special to C&EN May, 2016
http://cen.acs.org/articles/94/i22/Does-cloud-seeding-really-work.html

 

[Mike Thomas]

I, for one, welcome our new cloud seeding overlords. Let's steal Jay Peak's powder!

 

[cantunamunch]

I, for one, welcome our new cloud seeding overlords. Let's steal Jay Peak's powder!

Dream big. Get all of Nova Scotia's and Newfoundland's too.

 

[Muleski]

Any updates on this one? Starting to sound to me like there may have been a lot of serious interest, and that it may have since fallen apart. Like when it moved from general agreement to the details. I'm hearing entirely different things from people who I think ought to know if something is happening. Which normally tells me that nobody has a clue. But my gut tells me otherwise.

At the least the impending press release sure has been delayed......

Meanwhile sounds like lots of Intrawest conversations are taking place. Bankers talking to bankers, all nosing around looking at different pieces, trying to figure out interest and value. The usual stuff. It could actually be Intrawest's partner, Fortress, trying to get a more refined handle on the real market for the portfolio, as a whole or broken up.

Meanwhile I still wonder about the guys who seem to be sitting on a huge pile of cash, KSL, but all I have is my own curiosity.

That and rumblings that O-Z may be quietly entertaining some conversation about some of the individual CNL properties before they have even closed on the deal. Seems different, yet possible.

Could be an interesting spring! Then again, could be nothing. Unique business. There could be some record revenue years for a number of areas, and that tends to mess up getting to a fair and realistic value.

Stowe? Bet today was a big day. Was supposed to be there for the UVM carnival, but we had to change plans.

Curious as always.

 

[Erik Timmerman]

I think we are feeling more and more resigned that it is done or nearly done.

 

[Erik Timmerman]

Rumor was that this was 100% certain to be announced today. And it wasn't. Vail does their corporate earnings report tomorrow. That seems like a good time to announce an acquisition, doesn't it?

 

[quant]

Rumor was that this was 100% certain to be announced today. And it wasn't. Vail does their corporate earnings report tomorrow. That seems like a good time to announce an acquisition, doesn't it?

MTN would simply issue a press release and 8-K filing, the way has always done in the past. I still think this is a crazy rumor. What investors hope to see is an increase in skier days, which were down as of the Jan. 13th 8-K (as of 1/8/2017) due to spotty snow in the beginning of the season. That should hopefully change with the massive snowfalls since the beginning of January.