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Crazy year for the 14ers

Tricia

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Chris Walker

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I don't think the attitude (or the fatality rate) has changed. I haven't seen any numbers, but my guess would be that there's simply more traffic up there than there used to be. Everywhere I go in Colorado is more crowded than it used to be. The Aspen Times ran a story after the first death on Capitol Peak citing the increased popularity of "peak-bagging" or checking 14ers off of your list.

http://www.aspentimes.com/news/colo...2017-renews-drive-to-educate-hikers-of-risks/
 

jmeb

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I don't think the attitude (or the fatality rate) has changed. I haven't seen any numbers, but my guess would be that there's simply more traffic up there than there used to be. Everywhere I go in Colorado is more crowded than it used to be. The Aspen Times ran a story after the first death on Capitol Peak citing the increased popularity of "peak-bagging" or checking 14ers off of your list.

http://www.aspentimes.com/news/colo...2017-renews-drive-to-educate-hikers-of-risks/

Even with the increased traffic, this years seems like an anomaly for the Aspen region -- it's a different fatality rate. There have been 9 deaths since 2003. Five of them have been in the last 6 weeks.
 

jmeb

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It is also worth noting, that in most of these cases it is believed that the climbers fell after getting (or choosing to get) off route -- i.e. avoid the Knife Edge and its intense exposure. The Aspen Times article (http://www.aspentimes.com/news/breaking-news-another-climber-dies-on-capitol-peak/) has some tidbits that will no doubt be expanded on in further incident reports. People considering big objectives like this need to read to understand the human errors we make and how to build habits and systems to avoid them.
 

jmeb

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My .02 on the attitude... (context: I've been bagging class 3-4 peaks last couple years in Co. Mostly focused on 13ers cause I don't like crowds. I have friend groups who are both more recreational 14ers and friend groups of people who are making regular speed ascents of lots of major class 3-4 routes and crazy ridge traverse like Maroon Traverse / Little Bear-Blanca)

I think there is an unfortunate attitude that "14ers" are a category of mountains--where that category tells you something about how hard they are. All that 14er mountains share is they happen to be a similar height. If people are successful on a couple, its easy to make the slip into believing that they can be successful on most -- without a slow build up of skill in a methodical way. But for people who've been on stuff like Capitol, you know that shares about as much with doing a 14er like Bierstadt, as doint Bierstadt shares with taking a 5mi walk around a forest in Ohio. I think we see a similar thing with relatively new skiers who skied a double black at some easier resort, and then wander into Crested Buttes North Face only to realize they are in way over their head.
 

KevinF

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You don't need intense exposure, high altitude, etc. to cause big problems in a big hurry.

Little ol' Mt. Washington, NH -- home of the "World's Worst Weather" -- has a body count that rivals most places.

Many people underestimate what they're getting into. It's a relatively short hike (4.5 miles each way), with a substantial portion of it being scrambling over refrigerator-sized boulders while above treeline. i.e., you can be less than a mile from shelter and still easily be well over an hour away from that shelter.

Being up there when the visibility goes from "miles" to "inches" in the span of a few minutes is a pretty unnerving experience. You're either stuck waiting for the wind to blow a hole in the clouds and grant you some visibility to the next cairn or you better have some route finding abilities. The most popular route (Tuckerman Ravine Trail) is described in most guide books as "quite safe, but it traverses near some very dangerous terrain". Climbing (or descending) it in pea soup fog can easily get you into an "oh s---" moment in a big hurry.

As @Chris Walker said above... there's simply more people up there not all of whom necessarily appreciate what they're getting into. I've hiked Mt. Washington when the weather has turned in a big way (raining, wind, temps dropping, etc) and had to bundle up and retreat. And that's in the summer! I remember descending and coming across people hiking up in t-shirts / shorts, getting soaked, shivering and betting that they could warm up in the summit shelters. Ummmm, yes, the shelter is open, yes, they'll let you in, and you are hours away from it. TURN AROUND.
 

Chris Walker

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Even with the increased traffic, this years seems like an anomaly for the Aspen region -- it's a different fatality rate. There have been 9 deaths since 2003. Five of them have been in the last 6 weeks.

That's for sure an anomaly (and a tragedy) to have so many incidents clustered in one area. But I don't know if I would say statewide it's a crazy year for 14ers. As far as I can tell, this makes 8 deaths this season climbing 14ers in Colorado, which is high but not so far out of the norm statistically. They say there's an average of 1 death a year on Long's, but you can go several years without a fatality and then have 3 or 4 in one year. It's hard to prove trends with lumpy data. I think it's a great point you make that people tend to class all 14ers in the same category, when the difficulty of climbing them varies tremendously.
 

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The latest facts of the most recent fall off Capitol Peak are coming out, and it's very sad. This young guy {21} had no business being there, IMO. That may sound harsh, but it seems so clear. His climbing companion was older and more experienced, and must be feeling horribly. The young guy filled in as the partner at the last minute, as it sounds.

The young guy had never climbed {or hiked in terms of the really gentle ones} a 14er. He was wearing flat soled skateboard shoes. Dressed in all cotton. They summited at 3:15PM, having gotten a late start. Luckily the weather had not turned. He saw what looks like a trail heading toward the North Face, and the Lake. It's not the trail that you descend on. If it were safe, and quicker, it has been pointed out by many that it would be THE route down. It's not.

It brings you to the edge of a cliff. It is technical climb. The older climbing companion told him not to go that way. He did. The older guy told him to use his cell phone light to try to signal him if he were in trouble later in the day/night and stuck up there. He saw no lights. The older guy had reached their campsite near the lake at about 7PM.

And we now know, the younger man's body was recovered the next day, all signs pointing to a fall off the North face. This body was something like 100 yards away from where the bodies of the couple who fell a week earlier were found. Sounds so similar. I bet the younger guy may not have even known about their fall.

I have family in Aspen. Knowledgeable climbers, hikers, skiers, etc. The town is really saddened by this. Lots of discussion of people heading up with questionable experience, no skills, etc., and what to do about it. Five deaths in one season on Capitol Peak. Sad.

Aspen also lost a much beloved ski instructor, Angus Graham, in a car crash in OR over the weekend, BTW. Awful.
 
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jmeb

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Link for those interested in the full story: http://www.aspentimes.com/news/man-...k-likely-chose-route-similar-to-aspen-couple/

While there is no point in blaming people here, there is a lot to study regarding human errors in being safe in the backcountry.

This is putting the Forest Service and Aspen community in a tough position. Signing seems like an obvious answer but opens up a whole slew of potential consequences.
 

Core2

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There is talk here of closing trails when heat gets above a certain level to prevent deaths since it has gotten so bad with unprepared hikers. We have tons of signs warning people about the heat and even post rangers at busy trail heads yet people still hike and die. I don't know how you force common sense?
 

Muleski

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Link for those interested in the full story: http://www.aspentimes.com/news/man-...k-likely-chose-route-similar-to-aspen-couple/

While there is no point in blaming people here, there is a lot to study regarding human errors in being safe in the backcountry.

This is putting the Forest Service and Aspen community in a tough position. Signing seems like an obvious answer but opens up a whole slew of potential consequences.

Well said. I don't mean to cast any blame. No need to, and there have been five tragic deaths. So very sad.

It is putting Aspen and the community, the USFS, etc. in a tough position, for sure. With social media, particularly Instagram, people see great pictures of great views, and great experiences and want to check them out.

I have no idea what the solution is. I am sure that a lot of energy and effort will be directed toward it.
 

jmeb

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I don't know how you force common sense?

At least in the case of 14er deaths in CO -- it goes way beyond common sense. Being in the high mountains safely requires learning and execution in line with your objectives. It takes a long time to learn how to identify objective's difficulty and safety, make plans to deal with both of those, and then execute those plans.
 

Core2

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At least in the case of 14er deaths in CO -- it goes way beyond common sense. Being in the high mountains safely requires learning and execution in line with your objectives. It takes a long time to learn how to identify objective's difficulty and safety, make plans to deal with both of those, and then execute those plans.

You can be highly trained/educated and still make a dumb common sense mistake in the mountains that costs life. With the kid choosing the wrong route, the common sense fault isn't on him but on the guy who took him up that mountain. The guy has climbed a bunch of 14ers, obviously knows what is involved and all the dangers, yet did not have the common sense to not bring someone who was unprepared.
 
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Tricia

Tricia

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The guy has climbed a bunch of 14ers, obviously knows what is involved and all the dangers, yet did not have the common sense to not bring someone who was unprepared.
Playing devils advocate:
If the young guy had followed the instruction and advice of the seasoned hiker, he would likely be alive.

On the other hand - If your buddy backed out and you won't go unless you have a buddy on this kind of hike trip, then why on earth would you let this unprepared 21 yo go.

Is it better to be alone or with someone who's unprepared?
 

Core2

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Playing devils advocate:
If the young guy had followed the instruction and advice of the seasoned hiker, he would likely be alive.

Yeah true and guy left him up there after telling him he would probably die. I still question that guy's common sense all around.
 
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Tricia

Tricia

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Yeah true and guy left him up there after telling him he would probably die. I still question that guy's common sense all around.
To be fair to you, I edited my post to add my counter thoughts as well.
 

Core2

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To be fair to you, I edited my post to add my counter thoughts as well.

Yeah, you don't take someone up double blacks that has only ever skied greens. That is the kind of common sense I am talking about. It is easy to read the article and say "oh the kid was dumb being irrational" which isn't how I see it.
 

dlague

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You can be highly trained/educated and still make a dumb common sense mistake in the mountains that costs life. With the kid choosing the wrong route, the common sense fault isn't on him but on the guy who took him up that mountain. The guy has climbed a bunch of 14ers, obviously knows what is involved and all the dangers, yet did not have the common sense to not bring someone who was unprepared.

Professionals make mistakes - JP Auclair is a prefect skiing/hiking example - RIP
 
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Tricia

Tricia

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Professionals make mistakes - JP Auclair is a prefect skiing/hiking example - RIP
The list is long, whether you're talking about seasoned climbers, skiers or snowboarders.
Falling in a crevasse, slipping in a no fall zone on skis, missing weather signs, freak avalanche behavior.....the list goes on and on.
 

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