- Joined
- Dec 11, 2016
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- 2,123
Don't bust our bubbles like that!The most obvious difference between now and September 2010 is that we were experiencing the strongest La Nina since 1955 in September 2010 and El Nino/La Nina is dead neutral now. So I think we know where the leading influence upon the 2010-11 snow season came from.
Odds are high this is going to be one of those laughable maps by the end of the season.
I always thought JB's forecasts were mainly ENSO focused, like the majority of seasonal forecasts in the US. I kind of take his statements with a high degree of caution due to his AGW stance. Judah is the only one I know who is serious about looking into the Siberian Snow Pack. Siberian Snow Pack and the AO is a good predictor for the East, MJO for the West. MJO is a shorter term predictor, however you can use ENSO among other things to estimate what the MJO will do.JB (Joe Bastardi) likes to push his limits by making bolder long range forecast.... that's the nature of the beast. He uses the AO (Arctic Oscillation) teleconnection which indicates a strong or weaken polar vortex along with the Siberian snowpack as a factor for forecast.
Judah Cohen the founder of the Siberian snow pack correlation, he has a twitter account which tracks the AO and the snow pack. I think he is honing in on where the snow pack occurs and how persistence it is during the fall to make a more accurate forecast.
I always thought JB's forecasts were mainly ENSO focused, like the majority of seasonal forecasts in the US. I kind of take his statements with a high degree of caution due to his AGW stance. Judah is the only one I know who is serious about looking into the Siberian Snow Pack.
Analogs are useless, so don't know why he uses those. It's good that he shows the teleconnections.Just before and during winter, JB will show the teleconnections (including the MJO) and analogs he has researched. He will even show graphs from Cohen's blog/twitter. JB along with Bernie Rayno are the ones I follow once the storms comes rolling in. The majority of outlets of just regurgitate the NWS.
BTW, JB along with most private forecasting companies do not believe in the high influence of AGW, JB is just more vocal since it is not science base but faith based. Cohen has to be careful since he relies on government research grant, so his writings are somewhat cryptic about this subject matter.
Never been a tracker of the (Atlantic) hurricane season other than there appears to be a strong correlation to the state of the AMO and the ACE index. That said, there appears to some correlation to the AMO and PDO on how much snow we will get at the respective coast. Here's JB prelim for the upcoming winter. Just hope the Siberian snowpack confirms this for the Northeast as well.
That I can agree on.he apparently likes attention