Good points and good observations. This is not easy to "solve", or "fix." One of the fundamental issues has to do with gaining some concensus around the vision and goals for US Skiing and for that wide horizon of "ski racing."
In the Bill Marolt years, he and his group came up with the tagline "Best in the World," which frankly many of us howled at. And what did it mean? How do you judge or measure it? Well, it meant producing the most medals, WC wins, podiums among a very select group of individuals who came into the system. There was no goal to compete or unseat the Austrians in the Nations' Cup, which I agree would be more like Best in the World.
So we had Bode, winning the WC. We had Ligety emerge as Mr. GS, we had LV become the best in history at her craft. Mancuso had a knack to wake up in Olympic cycles, and was a media darling....so the average fan far overestimated her actual skiing {despite her amazing athleticism and talent}. As they all began to show some age, Mikaela just exploded on the circuit a 16.
Mikaela was SUCH a phenom and so prolific that she actually drove a lot of talented women out of the sport. I recall her just smoking our daughter who was a three year captain of a good NCAA program, when MS was 15 and our daughter 21. The kids her own age? It took some serious cheerleading.
In their wake was a just whole lot of road kill. Many an athlete has worn a USST jacket for a long time with almost no real results. Many entered the system and were bounced out very quickly. Depth was not on the radar screen. And developing "older" athletes, say 25+? Not on the radar. Has never been a focus. Perhaps now it will be.
The Devekopment Teams were a compete disaster. So many one and dones. There was no focus on long term development that seemed clear to many stakeholders. It was ugly.
In terms of fixing it, it is hard to know where to start. The very best programs do actually know how to pace and rest kids, and avoid the overtraining injuries that are now so prevalent in soccer, or gymnastics. Kirk Dwyer, now the ED at SSCV, former headmaster at Burke Mtn Academy and MS's youth coach is a huge proponent of periodization and rest. He is always talking and writing about it. His goal at SSCV is to prepare athletes to eventually win on the WC, by actually training less. Big changes underway.
The programs that I am familiar with spend a great deal of time on reinforcing basic skiing, even through the U19 years and beyond. When our son was in a slump in college, at 23, he drove to spend three days with one of his former coaches, and all they did for three days was free ski and tweak his boots. Got his touch and balance back.
You may have followed the first few FIS races of a young New Zealand teen, Alice Robinson. She will have 16 points on the first FIS points list, which has literally never happened. I can't even think of an analogy. I had a chance to connect with her coach of last winter, and asked him what they had done. First, they fixed her boots. And fixed her bindings. They got her on good skis, as a U16. I think she skied 188/30's. They worked on a TON of fundamentals, and kept at it, as she began to "kill" it for a section, then a whole run. Then they started on tactics. The whole year was really devoted to getting her to be prepared as best as possible to begin her FIS level racing. This coach feels that you want to be fast at 18, or 19. It's ALL preparation up until then. I may be foggy on some of that conversation, but that was the general message.
However, the biggest hurdle are often the parents. I have a friend who coaches U14's and U16's. He has coached a number of kids where Mom or Dad skied on the WC, and some where BOTH did. They are super easy to work with. They get it, and are very objective about their kids. They often talk about fun.
He has parents who are incredibly accomplished in other endeavors, generally have a lot of money, and almost always are used to pushing people to get their way. Very often these parents are dying to have their kids be ski racers. So they consider hiring personal coaches. They home school kids in mountain towns until they are old enough to be in a ski academy. No expense is too much. My friend calls these parents "bulldozers", and they are VERY difficult to slow down. They think they know what is best.
I know it sounds nuts, but if you have a serious U14 or U16, who you enroll in a ski academy{at about $60K} it is very easy to spend more than that annually on the other stuff. And slowing those parents down, to take a long term approach, and not focus on "results" is very hard. They measure everything else in life.
Therein lies one of the problems. It need not cost a fortune to develop really great skiers. It does not need to cost a fortune to enable a kid to learn to ski race, and really love it.
But to excel at it does require a TON of financial expense. Some talented kids with modest means are very well supported, but they tend to come from mountain towns. The demographic of many of this country's ski racers is one of relative wealth. They are kids who's families make a lot of expensive moves to make this happen, at younger and younger ages.
And I would venture that maybe once a generation we have an incredible athlete on the ski team. Maybe.
The sad, unfortunate, or realistic thing is that spending money and entering the arms race most often works. If the kids have heart, work ethic and drive, and some degree of talent, it can absolutely work. Does it create a logical pipeline to the top of the sport? No way. To be at the very top you do need some serious athletic talent....or you need the opportunity to make yourself into such an athlete.
Does it keep kids at it, and produce a lot of our best college ski racers? Yes. Not making the USST, "not making criteria", but skiing real well, and maybe even loving it.
Does the USST do a good job of identifying, selecting and developing the future best? That's a big question. And I have to think the whole system and process can be improved.
But, we need to be realistic about the athlete pool, and the expense.
Our best in the world group was so totally obvious that you could not trip over them. LV, JM, MS were so clearly world class at 13 that it was impossible to miss. Bode, by about 17 clearly had another gear and was just unique. Boys mature later. As he kept growing and filling out, it was obvious. He was also just a freak of nature athlete.
People talk of Ted Ligety being a late bloomer. Sort of. He grew up in Park City, skiing as soon as he could walk. His parents held him out of racing until he was 10. That is actually late in PC. He grew up in what may have been the best group of boys in the world at the time. People often mention that he failed to qualify for JO's as a J3. At 13. Well by the time he was 18-19, he won the silver in SL at Jr. Worlds against a WC field, and he was in the USST system. Not that late. He says the best thing for him was that he had to work his ass off, always. Was always working hard to catch people, then later to stay ahead of them.
The real late bloomers were the college guys who made team criteria, and who it seemed to many observers were treated as one year aggravation by the team. That seems to be better now. The reason the term late bloomer comes up is because at the time Ligety was 22 -24 or so, the USST thought a smart plan would be to take our fastest can't miss 15-16 men to Europe to ski on the EC. Just nuts. A lot of road kill. There is a huge void in a number of birth years where these kids were pushed too hard, too fast. One of the very best just hung it up at 18.
But getting that USST jacket was the goal for everybody. Was there really a logical plan? No. Just the same old same old. Nobody was suggesting to slow it down and methodically plan it out.
I wonder if Sasha Rearick's fondness for hiring ex USST athletes as coaches {often with zero coaching experience, no training, no college} just makes for more of the same. What else do they know?
The two best actions to me are killing the men's D team {and making the women's tiny}, and pretty much doing away with the kids NTG. And I guess the USST Academy?
Phil McNichol's comment about it being almost impossible to predict WC success based in U16 results is spot on. But for a couple of years anyways we were pre-selecting our future by picking those NTG squads. Caused more problems than good, I hear.
It's sadly the same in so many sports. One of my veteran ski coach friends, who has coached U10's through the World Cup jokes that he would love to raise the money to run a youth ski program, "The Arcing Orphans." He's find hard working, great athletes....with no parents to deal with. No parents in the kids ears. No parental expectations. He jokes about it for a reason. Ski parents can be brutal.
Agree with
@K2 Rat's points
{and everybody else} USST criteria? Don't wind me up. I have seen ever iteration broken for at least 25 years. My favorites have been when athletes have made criteria, only to be told by the coaches to their face that the criteria "was too easy"....i.e. You should not be on MY team! Bode is very forthcoming when he rattles off the names of guys who could have had MUCH better careers if the USST had treated them differently.
This year, it's going to be pretty interesting to watch the US Men in GS. Kieffer Christianson just announced yesterday that he is retiring, at 25, due to his concussion issues. Before that, I think we were looking at up four non USST members starting many of the WC GS. I think it's going to be similar in SL. Three or four every time. Guys good enough to start every WC, but unable to "make criteria" and therefore paying their own way.
It continues to be broken, but I am optimistic that it will move the right way. I can be quite critical of Tiger Shaw, as progress has been slow. What might be more fair is to state that he took over a real mess.
My focus is alpine racing. US Skiing and Snowboarding covers it all. Lots of constituents, lots of headcount and staff. Not every alpine power cares about much more than fielding a Nordic team.
Always interesting.....