My wife likes this kid's youtube videos, so I thought I would post his winter forecast. The western forecast is non-existent, just could be above average, could be below average. For the East Coast especially mid-Atlantic and New England Region looks like above average cold and stormy. As the Pocono's (where I ski) had to rely on snow-making all season long last year; I could go for some fresh snow to ski on. What do you think is going to happen and do you have any favorite sites or vids with predictions? Cheers
There are
lots of kids and other older weather geeks who do winter forecasts on YouTube. Just search up 'Winter forecast 17-18' and you will find hours of weather content. I don't really watch these forecasts. They often heavily rely on ENSO, which I think is fraught with danger. If they don't rely on ENSO, they rely on model output of the NMME or the North American Multi Model Ensemble. That contains two models, CFS and CanSIPS. They are both free and widely available. However they are not the best on the market.
From experience over the years, I have found the best model output for seasonal modelling is
JAMSTEC, which is public and I have linked it's forecast from my twitter. The other good model output is ECMWF, which is not public, but I happen to be extremely lucky as I have access to it.
As for what I think, ATM I think MJO is going to have a significant presence if La Niña gets strong enough. That helps the West Coast.
PNW/South BC could have a good season, based of a La Niña. I am awaiting the Siberian Snow Cover observations for October. That affects the polar vortex, which then (often) produces an -AO. This benefits the East Coast. We also need to watch the Pacific Jet, etc, etc.
Anyway I will probably do a proper one in late October/November, when I have time.