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newfydog

Making fresh tracks
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Nov 23, 2015
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834
Well there you go. I would debate how much relevance the 1% theoretical (or 0.25% observed)* change in the global energy budget has on short term weather predictions. This thread is going downhill.

*(Numbers from an award winning NASA climate scientist)
 

jack97

Out on the slopes
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924
Judah Cohen thinks a blocking pattern will allow more winter conditions in Siberia this month. The latest forecast of the AO shows a weakening of the polar vortex which is favorable to JB's snow map. The question is how this will interact to a weak to moderate La Nina. One time it snowed this early in Siberia and we had the super El Nino as well. NE along with the East Coast, the winter patterns was a big mess. Thankfully we have El Ninos every 11 years or so and they are rarely the "Super" type we just had.

Latest snow cover up north....


ims2017263_alaska.gif
 
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Jellybeans1000

Getting off the lift
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Apr 25, 2017
Posts
283
Location
Victoria, Australia
Judah Cohen thinks a blocking pattern will allow more winter conditions in Siberia this month. The latest forecast of the AO shows a weakening of the polar vortex which is favorable to JB's snow map. The question is how this will interact to a weak to moderate La Nina. One time it snowed this early in Siberia and we had the super El Nino as well. NE along with the East Coast, the winter patterns was a big mess. Thankfully we have El Ninos every 11 years or so and they are rarely the "Super" type we just had.

Latest snow cover up north....


ims2017263_alaska.gif
Interesting....
Here's some maps from the CPC about the link between ENSO and AO, with my added annotation.

Temperature Anomaly.
IMG_2091.PNG

Precipitation Anomaly
IMG_2094.PNG
 

jack97

Out on the slopes
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There's another private that plots out temps and precip similar the CDC using AMO, PDO and other teleconnecions and further sorts them out by years. This compile info was more geared toward sorting analogs.

JB mentioned the La Nina potential a couple of weeks ago. He's still not sure how long or strong it will go into the winter. Latest SST anomaly.

anomg.9.21.2017.gif
 

Jellybeans1000

Getting off the lift
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Victoria, Australia
Below is the IRI ENSO plume, showing all the predictions of pretty much every dynamic model there is (including university models and a Saudi model) and a good selection of statistisical models.
IMG_2106.GIF

The dynamic model average is -0.7 and the overall average is -0.6.
UKMO, MetFrance, CFS and the COLA models are the only ones of note, that are going for a proper La Niña scenario.
Most models show Borderline La Niña or Cool Neutral. I personally think we are heading for a weak La Niña, and the atmosphere component seems to be heading in the right direction too.
 

nay

dirt heel pusher
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Dec 1, 2015
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Colorado
My dogs' coats have accurately predicted the last two seasons. Bernese Mountain Dogs.

The male has been chewing his haunches due to excessive coat for the past six weeks no matter how much I shed him.

Make of it what you will.
 

1chris5

Getting off the lift
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Feb 4, 2017
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457
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Snowshoe, WV
My wife likes this kid's youtube videos, so I thought I would post his winter forecast. The western forecast is non-existent, just could be above average, could be below average. For the East Coast especially mid-Atlantic and New England Region looks like above average cold and stormy. As the Pocono's (where I ski) had to rely on snow-making all season long last year; I could go for some fresh snow to ski on. What do you think is going to happen and do you have any favorite sites or vids with predictions? Cheers
 

Susie

PSIA - Alpine II
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Truckee, CA
I haven't looked at the formal meteorological guidance per se but based on the active Atlantic Hurricane Season (due to the southward position of the Atlantic sub-tropical ridge, which kept trade winds down and thus sea surface temperature up) and a winter-esque transatlantic crossing that I experienced in July, I vote for a cold winter on the west coast. This generally means more snow due to higher rain/snow ratios but not necessarily more moisture. Meteorological circulations are global. When the subtropical ridge is positioned "low" in the Atlantic, it generally is positioned "higher" in the Pacific. This would result in more continental air from Canada moving to the west coast, making it colder. Many meteorologists focus on the ocean circulations (ENSO for example). However, I prefer to focus on the atmosphere, because it is the atmospheric temperature gradients and resultant winds that cause the ocean circulations. Oceans are just simpler and change with less frequency, so the meteorological community tends to communicate these more macro scale adjustments of the atmospheric conditions in ocean language. There, your weather education for the day... bring on the Colorado powder in Tahoe this winter:)
 

Jellybeans1000

Getting off the lift
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Victoria, Australia
My wife likes this kid's youtube videos, so I thought I would post his winter forecast. The western forecast is non-existent, just could be above average, could be below average. For the East Coast especially mid-Atlantic and New England Region looks like above average cold and stormy. As the Pocono's (where I ski) had to rely on snow-making all season long last year; I could go for some fresh snow to ski on. What do you think is going to happen and do you have any favorite sites or vids with predictions? Cheers
There are lots of kids and other older weather geeks who do winter forecasts on YouTube. Just search up 'Winter forecast 17-18' and you will find hours of weather content. I don't really watch these forecasts. They often heavily rely on ENSO, which I think is fraught with danger. If they don't rely on ENSO, they rely on model output of the NMME or the North American Multi Model Ensemble. That contains two models, CFS and CanSIPS. They are both free and widely available. However they are not the best on the market.

From experience over the years, I have found the best model output for seasonal modelling is JAMSTEC, which is public and I have linked it's forecast from my twitter. The other good model output is ECMWF, which is not public, but I happen to be extremely lucky as I have access to it.

As for what I think, ATM I think MJO is going to have a significant presence if La Niña gets strong enough. That helps the West Coast.
PNW/South BC could have a good season, based of a La Niña. I am awaiting the Siberian Snow Cover observations for October. That affects the polar vortex, which then (often) produces an -AO. This benefits the East Coast. We also need to watch the Pacific Jet, etc, etc.

Anyway I will probably do a proper one in late October/November, when I have time.
 

Bad Bob

I golf worse than I ski.
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West of CDA South of Canada
It will snow some days in some places, other days it won't. We will have a much better idea come May.
 

dean_spirito

Freestyle Ski Coach
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Nov 10, 2015
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628
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Breckenridge, CO
It seems to be snowing considerable amounts in certain areas throughout the Rockies. I know people who have already skied in UT, OR, MT, and WY. Colorado has even seen some modest accumulations in certain areas and at the higher elevations. Summit County hasn't really seen much though. We appear to be in a classic doughnut-holding pattern at the moment. But we'll get ours. And I assure you, it will be glorious.
 

Tytlynz64

Getting off the lift
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DanoT

RVer-Skier
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Sun Peaks B.C. in winter, Victoria B.C. in summer
It seems to be snowing considerable amounts in certain areas throughout the Rockies. I know people who have already skied in UT, OR, MT, and WY. Colorado has even seen some modest accumulations in certain areas and at the higher elevations. Summit County hasn't really seen much though. We appear to be in a classic doughnut-holding pattern at the moment. But we'll get ours. And I assure you, it will be glorious.

I don't put much stock in Sept/Oct. snowfalls. Last year we had a very mild Nov. in B.C., melting all of the October snow, both man made and natural. We then proceeded to have the coldest winter, by my reckoning, in more than 20 years.

According to one of my ski buddies, who I think reads the Farmer's Almanac, this coming winter in B.C. it will be cold and snowy, but not as cold as last year.:yahoo:

The amount of snow we get will have little effect on the number of days I ski but it will effect the length of days.
 

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