Another General Weather Forecast... but No Climate Data Debates... Thread

[TonyC]

a proper ocean-atmospheric La Niña

There is no La Nina now.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/table.html

Which means the odds are very high there won't be one until most of ski season is behind us.
http://bestsnow.net/El_Nino.htm

 

[Jellybeans1000]

There is no La Nina now.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/table.html

Which means the odds are very high there won't be one until most of ski season is behind us.
http://bestsnow.net/El_Nino.htm

There is currently a prediction for a weak-moderate La Niña

ECMWF (the world's best weather model) predicts a La Niña at the moment. Although it is true that models have been reactive this year, most fellow weather folk I have spoken to has favoured some sort of La Niña.

Note cooling in Niño area.

 

[TonyC]

It's rare but not impossible for La Nina to strengthen materially between July and the following January. When it does, it's generally coming off a prior El Nino. We had a very temporary El Nino for two months in late spring 2017. I have seen these types of predictions before, but usually the bet for stability between JUL/AUG and JAN/FEB holds up.

 

[jack97]

CFSv2 is forecasting the la nina as well. The cold waters to develop in the next three months and will stay for the winter.

 

[TonyC]

We need to revisit these threads in March or April. It is surprising how infrequently that happens. That's a big part of the reason why these threads still have so much interest every autumn. But maybe it's because we're enjoying the skiing in March/April and more bored/restless at this time of year.

In my case, I spend the whole month of May rounding up snow data, so often my memory is jogged with regard to how far off the forecasts were before ski season started.

 

[newfydog]

Joe Bastardi offers long term forecasts which sometimes are pretty good. He uses sea temperatures, and patterns from analogous years.

https://www.weatherbell.com/#services

 

[Pete in Idaho]

Hi Newfy, hows the puppy, hope he's still around, the years are a passing. Are you still in Bend?

 

[Jellybeans1000]

Joe Bastardi offers long term forecasts which sometimes are pretty good. He uses sea temperatures, and patterns from analogous years.

https://www.weatherbell.com/#services

View attachment 29889

Like I said before, I would use caution reading his posts, because his often rubbish tweets. Analogs are also useless

 

[newfydog]

I'm curious Mr Jelly, how is it that meteorology is different from other earth science fields where analogous situations are invaluable in predicting things we don't fully understand? I'm not a meteorologist, but I've have some background in it, and my father was a CalTech trained meteorologist who used military weather info to chase powder dumps.. Joe is my favorite current weather man, but he is very opinionated....but he is right often enough that people in weather related businesses pay for his viewpoints. . Have you got any hard science and statistics to they are misguided?

 

[jack97]

Joe is my favorite current weather man, but he is very opinionated....but he is right often enough that people in weather related businesses pay for his viewpoints.

IMO, his opinionated stance is strongly motivated by how faith based his field has become.

 

[Jellybeans1000]

I'm curious Mr Jelly, how is it that meteorology is different from other earth science fields where analogous situations are invaluable in predicting things we don't fully understand? I'm not a meteorologist, but I've have some background in it, and my father was a CalTech trained meteorologist who used military weather info to chase powder dumps.. Joe is my favorite current weather man, but he is very opinionated....but he is right often enough that people in weather related businesses pay for his viewpoints. . Have you got any hard science and statistics to they are misguided?

No two events can ever be the same.... no two seasons can be the the same. That is why I mostly disregard analogs personally. Some people find linking historic events to current ones useful, I don't. Climate and weather is always changing and we can't rely on historic data because it's always going to be different to the present.

The best season predictions are IMO made from climate drivers such as ENSO, MJO, Local SSTs, PDO, AO, Sunspots, etc. Analogs aren't really worth much, now we have digital modelling. You wouldn't use old tech for science, you would use the latest tech.

 

[newfydog]

. Analogs aren't really worth much, now we have digital modelling. You wouldn't use old tech for science, you would use the latest tech.

Interesting. My personal experience from geologic research has been that analogs are from the real world, and encompass all the factors that affect the real world, while digital models simply can't possibly have all the variables in them. They work for some close in predictions, and quickly become worthless computer toys farther out.

 

[scott43]

Just got this pic from my brother...look closely..this is just around Koessen and Kitzbuhel..

 

[jack97]

The best season predictions are IMO made from climate drivers such as ENSO, MJO, Local SSTs, PDO, AO, Sunspots, etc. Analogs aren't really worth much, now we have digital modelling. You wouldn't use old tech for science, you would use the latest tech.

Those teleconnections you mentioned have periodic components. Furthermore, the strength/weakness of these indices are not binary nor are they strongly synchronous to one another. Due to this, analogs are still important.

As mentioned JB is a private and his main customers rely on his long range forecast for most likely futures trading. The other well know privates such as Weather Channel and Accuweather relies on the GFS and Euro, Both models are accurate within 1 week at best and maybe 1.5 weeks for warning. IMO, WC is click bait while Accuweather has Bernie Rayno who does a great job in the short term to determine the rain/ice/snow line and snow accumulation.

 

[Bigtinnie]

No two events can ever be the same.... no two seasons can be the the same. That is why I mostly disregard analogs personally. Some people find linking historic events to current ones useful, I don't. Climate and weather is always changing and we can't rely on historic data because it's always going to be different to the present.

The best season predictions are IMO made from climate drivers such as ENSO, MJO, Local SSTs, PDO, AO, Sunspots, etc. Analogs aren't really worth much, now we have digital modelling. You wouldn't use old tech for science, you would use the latest tech.

Despite all those 'predictors' no one that I know of predicted the bumper Aussie snow season.
Long range weather forecasting is complete guesswork imo.

 

[crgildart]

Despite all those 'predictors' no one that I know of predicted the bumper Aussie snow season.
Long range weather forecasting is complete guesswork imo.

The general consensus of Climatologists is that warmer oceans and warmer air facilitate more evaporation and fatter clouds to dump more moisture back to earth. If it's cool enough at the destinations that precip will be snow, lots of snow... If it's not cool enough rain, lots of rain..

But to keep this weather and not climate just look at the oceans today and short term, not 20 years from now. Pineapple express should be kicking ass again next winter. Lake effects across the northeast should also be generous. Just hope for cool instead of warm..

 

[Jellybeans1000]

Interesting. My personal experience from geologic research has been that analogs are from the real world, and encompass all the factors that affect the real world, while digital models simply can't possibly have all the variables in them. They work for some close in predictions, and quickly become worthless computer toys farther out.

Sure, but meterorology and geologic research are completely different sciences. Analogs in meterorology are made of old data. With the changing climate and the constantly changing weather situation, using historic data to map out the weather situation is a bit useless. A fellow countryman described using analogs like 'writing with a pen, when you have MS Word'.

Those teleconnections you mentioned have periodic components. Furthermore, the strength/weakness of these indices are not binary nor are they strongly synchronous to one another. Due to this, analogs are still important.

As mentioned JB is a private and his main customers rely on his long range forecast for most likely futures trading. The other well know privates such as Weather Channel and Accuweather relies on the GFS and Euro, Both models are accurate within 1 week at best and maybe 1.5 weeks for warning. IMO, WC is click bait while Accuweather has Bernie Rayno who does a great job in the short term to determine the rain/ice/snow line and snow accumulation.

What does periodic components have to do with it? All climate drivers occur over a period, medium-long term. Strengths and weaknesses of all climate drivers are not binary, but still can be observed by humans. They are all connected in our climate. Analogs are not important, because they are old technology and can not look at all the different drivers. NWP will be much better at analogs IMO.

I don't know what he (JB) gives to his clients. I know his model software is the best in the world. His tweets are mostly rubbish, his forecasts are okay, and doesn't seem to understand basic physics about the greenhouse effect. So I have good reason to be dubious about him. EC or Euro is the stand out model and can look out up to 7 days pretty well. GFS usually lines up with EC around 4 days and is not as good as EC. WC isn't great, and I agree it can be clickbait. Accuweather isn't great either IMO, but it has a pretty good modelling software that I personally use.

Despite all those 'predictors' no one that I know of predicted the bumper Aussie snow season.
Long range weather forecasting is complete guesswork imo.

Yes, but MJO and SAM did help predict and fuel the specific events that caused it. But usually long term prediction isn't so great. But we will learn from our mistakes and eventually get there.

But to keep this weather and not climate just look at the oceans today and short term, not 20 years from now. Pineapple express should be kicking ass again next winter. Lake effects across the northeast should also be generous. Just hope for cool instead of warm..

We just need the MJO to line up correctly for the Pineapple Express, and preliminary forecasts show that has a good chance of happening. The warm SSTs around Hawaii look like potential.

 

[newfydog]

I don't know what he (JB) gives to his clients.... doesn't seem to understand basic physics about the greenhouse effect. .

The title of this post wisely asks you to leave out your climate opinions. To maintain "ski talk at a higher level", please try.

 

[Jellybeans1000]

The title of this post wisely asks you to leave out your climate opinions.

Sorry, just trying to help
I shall leave my climate opinions to the Bear Pit....

To maintain "ski talk at a higher level", please try.

Not sure what this comment is trying to imply. If my post quality is unsatisfactory, I'm more than happy to take suggestions

 

[crgildart]

The title of this post wisely asks you to leave out your climate opinions. To maintain "ski talk at a higher level", please try.

I'm not sure that greenhouse effect is entirely out of bounds for discussing current and seasonal weather a few months out. Where it delves in to climate is long term, years out instead of how it's influencing the weather right now.. I don't believe any weather prognosticators discount greenhouse effect entirely when making short term predictions.