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crgildart

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This data source is looking good for our region and the Midwest! What's Joe Bastardi got so far?

20994087_10214078631498233_440097181391787183_n.jpg
 

Ron

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Core2

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Yeah, every reg here knows the long term forecasts are junk. Mods should actively police this kind of crap for our sanity.
 
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Tricia

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I'm curious how the weather was the winter of 2005-06.
I don't have data on that.
Fortunately, we have a member who does have data on that.
http://bestsnow.net/seas06.htm

It looks like snow levels in Tahoe were a bit above normal the season after Hurricane Katrina
Watching Hurricane Harvey on tv this morning is reminiscent of Katrina :(

But its weather pattern that I'm interested in and I wonder if it will make an impact on the season.
Here's the summary.
http://bestsnow.net/summ06.htm
 
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markojp

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I am going with a long range forecast of shorter days and a lower sun angle.

... And particularly scattered light toward morning. (george carlin)
 
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Core2

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Hopefully climate change will make us have an even crazier winter this season.
 

TonyC

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What a magnificent article by Joel! It's nice to see that most people here are taking these long range forecasts as seriously as they deserve.

With regard to analog seasons (2005-06 being cited above) Joel pointed out that this a dangerous way to forecast weather because sample size is way too small. You would want to compare 20+ seasons with destructive Gulf hurricanes to the ensuing winters. Even then, correlation does not mean causality. Joel would want a plausible meteorological explanation.

I mention this because some forecasters like Jim Roemer are big fans of using analog seasons for winter ski projections.
 
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Tricia

The Velvet Hammer
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Reno
I'm curious how the weather was the winter of 2005-06.
I don't have data on that.
Fortunately, we have a member who does have data on that.
http://bestsnow.net/seas06.htm

It looks like snow levels in Tahoe were a bit above normal the season after Hurricane Katrina
Watching Hurricane Harvey on tv this morning is reminiscent of Katrina :(

But its weather pattern that I'm interested in and I wonder if it will make an impact on the season.
Here's the summary.
http://bestsnow.net/summ06.htm

See...Even OpenSnow is talking about it.
Can Irma predict 2017-18 snow fall?
 

RuleMiHa

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Philadelphia, PA
Has anyone every looked at the weather preceding crap seasons? Any chance there are more consistencies there that could be exploited as a predictive factor. Yes, no one is interested in forecasting crap ski seasons but maybe the data is better for ruling them out?
 

BGreen

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You can't ignore climate change. Temps in the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico can have a significant effect on snowfall. Take a warm Gulf and sustained low pressure over Albuquerque and Coloradans have to start shoveling their roofs. The conditions that have led to stronger hurricanes this year CAN lead to more moisture in winter storms.

All that said, my experience is that local patterns persist, and winter is consistently later each year. Snowy
months are snowier and dry months are drier. In Colorado you can almost start your season in February and have an amazing season as long as you ski to June.
 
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TS
crgildart

crgildart

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You can't ignore climate change. Temps in the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico can have a significant effect on snowfall. Take a warm Gulf and sustained low pressure over Albuquerque and Coloradans have to start shoveling their roofs. The conditions that have led to stronger hurricanes this year CAN lead to more moisture in winter storms.

All that said, my experience is that local patterns persist, and winter is consistently later each year. Snowy
months are snowier and dry months are drier. In Colorado you can almost start your season in February and have an amazing season as long as you ski to June.

Well, that's why even high elevation western resorts have been making huge investments in snow making infrastructure. People still want to start skiing around Thanksgiving and switch to golf and bikes around April. Taking the Christmas holiday shopping and family/school kids vacations out of the ski season equation would be catastrophic to the industry economy.
 

TonyC

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You can't ignore climate change.
I've been looking at the snow data going back 40+ years and the bottom line is that the only effect upon skiing is a rise in the rain/snow line. The effect is modest so far and nonexistent in the Rocky Mountains and in Colorado in particular.
Take a warm Gulf and sustained low pressure over Albuquerque and Coloradans have to start shoveling their roofs.
This is primarily a spring phenomenon and accounts for the seasonal bump in snowfall along the Front Range/Continental Divide.

As far as summer weather having any predictive value upon the ensuing winter, I don't buy that for a minute. November snowfall has zero correlation with January snowfall (same for other two month differences), so why should we think 6 month ahead weather has any discernable influence? I'm fairly sure Joel and other weather guys agree. There may be some confusion over examples like strong La Ninas, which influence cooler than normal summers along the West Coast along with more consistent Northwest storm tracks during the winter.
local patterns persist, and winter is consistently later each year. Snowy
months are snowier and dry months are drier.
I have mountains of data over the past 40+ years disproving this assertion. There is zero change in volatility of snowfall during that time.
In Colorado you can almost start your season in February and have an amazing season as long as you ski to June.
That has always been a good rule of thumb. With gradual accumulation of low water content snow but superb preservation, the quality of most Colorado skiing has always been highly skewed toward late season.
People still want to start skiing around Thanksgiving and switch to golf and bikes around April.
That was a dumb mindset 40 years ago and it's still a dumb mindset if you care about the quality of your skiing.
 

dlague

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Colorado
I've been looking at the snow data going back 40+ years and the bottom line is that the only effect upon skiing is a rise in the rain/snow line. The effect is modest so far and nonexistent in the Rocky Mountains and in Colorado in particular.
This is primarily a spring phenomenon and accounts for the seasonal bump in snowfall along the Front Range/Continental Divide.

As far as summer weather having any predictive value upon the ensuing winter, I don't buy that for a minute. November snowfall has zero correlation with January snowfall (same for other two month differences), so why should we think 6 month ahead weather has any discernable influence? I'm fairly sure Joel and other weather guys agree. There may be some confusion over examples like strong La Ninas, which influence cooler than normal summers along the West Coast along with more consistent Northwest storm tracks during the winter.

I have mountains of data over the past 40+ years disproving this assertion. There is zero change in volatility of snowfall during that time.
That has always been a good rule of thumb. With gradual accumulation of low water content snow but superb preservation, the quality of most Colorado skiing has always been highly skewed toward late season.

That was a dumb mindset 40 years ago and it's still a dumb mindset if you care about the quality of your skiing.


To your point TonyC, the dates do not prove a trend but here are the opening dates for skiing in Colorado
  • 2016: A-Basin 10/21
  • 2015: A-Basin & Loveland 10/29
  • 2014: A-Basin 10/17
  • 2013: A-Basin 10/13
  • 2012: A-Basin 10/17
  • 2011: Wolf Creek 10/8
  • 2010: Loveland 10/24
  • 2009: Loveland 10/7
  • 2008: A-Basin & Loveland 10/15
  • 2007: A-Basin 10/10
  • 2006: A-Basin 10/13
  • 2005: Loveland 10/14
  • 2004: Loveland 10/15
  • 2003: Loveland 10/28
  • 2002: Loveland 10/17
  • 2001: Copper Mtn. 10/17
  • 2000: Loveland 10/20
  • 1999: Loveland 10/19
  • 1998: Loveland 10/13
  • 1997: Loveland & Keystone 10/17
  • 1996: Loveland & Keystone 10/21
 

Jully

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Cleveland, OH
Well, that's why even high elevation western resorts have been making huge investments in snow making infrastructure. People still want to start skiing around Thanksgiving and switch to golf and bikes around April. Taking the Christmas holiday shopping and family/school kids vacations out of the ski season equation would be catastrophic to the industry economy.

I think the solution is to push every major holiday back 1 month. Or maybe institute a one month daylight savings instead of an hour.

Of course I don't really mind empty slopes from mid-march to mid-April (though I would love later closing dates for many areas).
 

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