Tesla Model ≡

[skibob]

The charging infrastructure is being built without a way to collect the equivalent of a gas tax. There are politicians who would love to phase out gasoline powered cars and replace them with electrics so they could fulfill their fantasy of charging everyone a mileage tax that would be paid when you register your car. So instead of paying a few bucks at the pump every time you refuel, you end up paying several hundred dollars as a lump sum at registration time. The social engineers will love this because it would discourage driving in favor of public transit in order to reduce the mileage tax.

Right now electrics are off the hook for helping to support the roads, but when they become numerous enough, there will be a demand that they pay their share of road maintenance, and the politicians will go straight to the mileage tax rather than try to retrofit the charging infrastructure to collect it. They will claim the mileage tax is a bonus because it will discourage driving, and even car ownership.

Its an interesting dilemma. But it seems the tax at registration could backfire by making gasoline cars more appealing. Something will have to replace that revenue when electric cars become ubiquitous enough and the gas tax works in that it is levied somewhat ~ on a usage basis.

 

[TonyC]

Gas tax revenue is already in decline due to increased fuel economy. Oregon is considering a mileage tax, bad idea IMHO.

There is a new Tesla development this week. Unlimited free supercharging will end for cars ordered after Dec. 31, 2016. 2017 and later Teslas will get an allowance of 400kWh free supercharging per year (that's about 1,000 miles; we blew through that much with 2 Mammoth trips during our first month) and have to pay for the electricity beyond that. A step like this was inevitable before the big volume of Model 3 sales begin, but the congestion at urban area chargers probably accelerated its implementation. The supercharger can identify your car when it plugs in, so payment by credit card deduction will be automatic and not require any cumbersome point of sale hardware like the generic chargers which all electrics can use.

The remainder of 2016 is a sweet spot for anyone considering a Model S or X. You get the last cars with unlimited free supercharging, and since mid-October you can get the new Autopilot hardware.

 

[ScotsSkier]

One thing about Tesla is that they seem very good at pushing the technology envelope and presumably bringing the rest of the auto industry with them. What is to me just as impressive is that they are doing much of what they do without first proving the viability of their business model.

Elon Musk strikes me as a successful risk taker whose company may fail financially bur he doesn't seem to care because he knows that in the worst case scenario one of the big auto industry players will scoop up Tesla and Musk's innovations will still survive.

I think all those folks who support and promote public transit and want to see cars off the road are going to grow to hate Elon Musk and Tesla.

He doesn't care too much because his primary business model has been in extracting taxpayer funds and various special tax breaks, both at state and federal level, to fund his businesses

 

[ScotsSkier]

Actually, just for grins and giggles, i went out to the website to price a build. Jeez! it shoots over $100k very quickly on both the S and the X

I had been expecting something in the $60-80k range

 

[DanoT]

Actually, just for grins and giggles, i went out to the website to price a build. Jeez! it shoots over $100k very quickly on both the S and the X

I had been expecting something in the $60-80k range

Is that a $100k for a Tesla before or after the Government rebates? I wonder if environmentalists who earn near the poverty level think that the wealthy car buyers should get the rebate?

 

[ScotsSkier]

Before. On casual glance it looked like the rebate was only $7500 though...doesnt even cover the autopilot options!

 

[DanoT]

Before. On casual glance it looked like the rebate was only $7500 though...doesnt even cover the autopilot options!

The rebate is not large enough to be a deal maker and won't really stimulate sales, so why does the government waste taxpayers money on stuff like this?

 

[TonyC]

Model S base prices: 60 is $66K, 75 is $74.5K, 90D is $89.5K. AWD on 70 or 75 is $5K, new autopilot is $5K. Other options you may want will total $5-10K. Yes it's expensive but see what you'll be paying after you're done with a Mercedes or BMW option list.

The federal tax credit is $7,500. California rebate is $2,500 but now has an income cap of $160K. The rationale of these policies is that new tech is expensive but get it going and the price will come down. In the case of Tesla, Model 3 reflects the mid-priced model enabled by sales of the early adopter cars. And as I noted early in this thread the federal tax credit is phased out after a manufacturer has sold 200,000 cars in the US.

That's the theory, but we can question that most Model S/X sales might have occurred anyway without a subsidy. In the case of the solar roof panels I installed in 2009 the California early adopter subsidy was very lavish and the panels would not have been economic without them. Since then prices have halved and efficiency increased 50% so solar panels in CA are a better deal now than then even though the state rebates are long since gone.

While I've taken advantage of these programs, that doesn't mean I think they are the best public policy. There have been failures like Solyndra, and the California rebate for fuel cell cars is larger than for battery electrics. I think those will also turn out to be a complete waste.

All industries curry favors from the government if they can, and in the case of Florida the utilities have totally blocked the rooftop solar industry, which could benefit many people there.

The best answer to pollution externalities from an economic point of view is a revenue neutral carbon tax. I-732 was such a measure proposed on the Washington State ballot last week with reductions in sales and business taxes (WA has no state income tax). It was defeated by an unholy alliance of fossil fuel industry and some environmental groups (including Sierra Club) that wanted to spend any new revenue on their pet programs. I agree with the characterization of such groups as "watermelons:" green on the outside and red on the inside.

 

[Philpug]

Actually, just for grins and giggles, i went out to the website to price a build. Jeez! it shoots over $100k very quickly on both the S and the X

I had been expecting something in the $60-80k range

I don't disagree with you by any means, but you are also getting a sedan that is lightning fast too.

 

[RachelV]

The rebate is not large enough to be a deal maker and won't really stimulate sales, so why does the government waste taxpayers money on stuff like this?

It stimulated my sale, and based on chatting with the people in line on that first day I was far from the only one. I mean -- 400k people on the waiting list seems pretty good to me. Not much when compared to conventional cars, it's true, but you gotta start somewhere. The tipping point is coming soon with these things and anything that helps us over the hump is A+ in my book.

 

[Philpug]

It stimulated my sale, and based on chatting with the people in line on that first day I was far from the only one. I mean -- 400k people on the waiting list seems pretty good to me. Not much when compared to conventional cars, it's true, but you gotta start somewhere. The tipping point is coming soon with these things and anything that helps us over the hump is A+ in my book.

400K is a huge amount fo sales. If they filled every order it woudl be the top selling car of the year. If they sell half of them, it will still be great.

 

[x10003q]

It stimulated my sale, and based on chatting with the people in line on that first day I was far from the only one. I mean -- 400k people on the waiting list seems pretty good to me. Not much when compared to conventional cars, it's true, but you gotta start somewhere. The tipping point is coming soon with these things and anything that helps us over the hump is A+ in my book.

The odds of you seeing the $7500 rebate are zero. Tesla has sold over 160K vehicles and the full rebate ends at 200k vehicles. Tesla sold around 25k vehicles last quarter. The 3 is still at least a year away. They should go over 200k in 2 quarters. Depending on where you are in line and how much you are willing to load up your 3 with extras, you might see either a $3750 rebate or a $1875 rebate.

 

[RachelV]

The odds of you seeing the $7500 rebate are zero. Tesla has sold over 160K vehicles and the full rebate ends at 200k vehicles. Tesla sold around 25k vehicles last quarter. The 3 is still at least a year away. They should go over 200k in 2 quarters. Depending on where you are in line and how much you are willing to load up your 3 with extras, you might see either a $3750 rebate or a $1875 rebate.

I know. We figured getting in line that first day was the only shot at ANY rebate on a 3. $1875 is better than $0. $0 would still be ok.

 

[ScotsSkier]

I don't disagree with you by any means, but you are also getting a sedan that is lightning fast too.

Yeas....but I can get a lot more skis and a great big dog in my truck.....and with a 0-60 time around 7s it is no slouch either ... .... plus it can do 1000 miles in a day without having to recharge....

 

[Eleeski]

Teslas are getting too popular. Our Tesla friend is complaining about long supercharger wait times - especially on I5's long legs. It's fantastic for his normal commute but sketchy on the long trips. More charging infrastructure is planned so hopefully it's a temporary issue.

Sacramento to Tahoe works if he visits us with our high amp 220 plug. But Tahoe electric rates are steep - for us.

Eric

 

[TonyC]

Teslas are getting too popular. Our Tesla friend is complaining about long supercharger wait times - especially on I5's long legs. It's fantastic for his normal commute but sketchy on the long trips. More charging infrastructure is planned so hopefully it's a temporary issue.
Eric

I-5 is being addressed. 20+ superchargers were opened at Buttonwillow/Stockdale in 2016 and more are under construction at Santa Nella. These take the pressure off Tejon and Harris Ranch. The 400kWh limit on 2017 and later cars will address the issue at urban area chargers.

Eric's friend doesn't need to charge at Eric's house as there are superchargers in Truckee. But Tesla needs to have a supercharger at south shore. Their website shows they plan one, but as yet there has been no permit application or construction.

The federal tax credit cap is based upon 200,000 sales in the US. Tesla will hit 200,000 worldwide in 2017, but US is only a bit over half of that. With the 18 month phaseout, all Model 3's delivered in 2018 will get some tax credit but only the first 10-20% of US Model 3's will get the full tax credit IMHO.

A decently optioned Model S75 ordered now will cost you 80-85K before tax credits. An S75D has 259 miles rated range, about the same as the max range S85 introduced in 2012-13.

For that net $75K Tesla compares favorably in performance, driving dynamics and carrying capacity for both people and gear like skis to its competition. I believe this will be true for Model 3 in the $40-50K price range.

I use my Tesla for much more long distance travel than the average driver and so far no complaints. The extra hour+ per day of charging is offset by not paying for gas. Based upon one's location and driving pattern, there are situations where Tesla's current technology and infrastructure is not enough yet. I believe the fraction of people in that situation is less than many people think.

 

[DanoT]

I am happy (I think) to inform the Californians that British Columbia is well on its way ($2B spent so far) to building another huge electricity producing damn on the Peace River in northeastern B.C. Of course the left wing NDP opposition party wants to cancel the $9B project, scheduled to start producing hydro electricity in 2024.

So clean electricity for future electric cars is on the way.

 

[TonyC]

Liz and I combined a ski day at Big Bear Friday with viewing desert wildflowers in Anza Borrego Saturday. Lots of pics here: http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=12375

We left home 6:30AM, arrived Snow Summit by 8:30, skied there until 1PM. The shuttle is no longer running midweek, so we drove over to Bear Mt. by 1:30, skied a few runs there and left at 3:30. We got to the Cabazon Outlet Mall Supercharger shortly after 5PM via the back road Hwy 38 and Yucaipa. By the time we had done some browsing and shopping we had a full charge of 282 rated miles.

We left Cabazon Friday 6:30PM, but with dinner in Palm Springs, overnight along I-10 near Indio and wandering around to see the sculptures and flowers in Anza Borrego, I saw we would have to make rated range = driving range over the 73 miles from Borrego Springs to the Temecula Supercharger. Fortunately it's a scenic and often winding road; I drove west of the 4,300 foot pass on routes 22 and 29 at 55mph on Adaptive Cruise Control and only had to pull over once to let 4 cars go by.

This coming week the Tesla will be making its first Tahoe trip. Liz and I plan to drive to Reno tomorrow and ski 2 for 1 Tuesday at Mt. Rose. We'll be in Truckee next to one of the Superchargers there Tuesday/Wednesday nights, skiing her MCP days at Squaw Wednesday and Thursday.

Anyone who's around at North Tahoe this week, let us know.

 

[pete]

not knocking Tesla, i personally think they're quite amazing and pushed (other than Toyota) OEM's into looking at electric, but found this article on quality issues interesting. Again, i know myself I'm more forgiving if what I'm buying is leading edge and pushing boundaries .. actually felt this way with GM when they pushed antilock brakes across all their platforms but .. see the flip side of coin.


So, the question is for those with a Tesla, I presume this not a big issue or those you haven't had issue with?

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/aut...y-issues-tesla-owners-bond-their-cars-n737111

 

[TonyC]

I nvestigated the quality issues before I placed my order in October 2015. Model S cars produced in 2012 and 2013 had many reliability problems resulting in that CR negative rating in 2015. I took an educated guess the major bugs had been ironed out and so far so good after one year and 15K miles. CR seems to agree because in 2916 Model S no longer has a negative reliability rating. Model X introduced in 2016 does have a negative rating and while quality has improved from a year ago it's still an unnecessarily complex car.

Elon says they made mistakes with Model X and that Model 3 will be simpler. I agree with NBC that Model 3 needs to be reliable out of the gate for a different set of owners.