Tesla Model ≡

[DanoT]

Tesla has a charging station in Kamloops B.C. and wants to put one in at Sun Peaks, so right now the SP Ski Corp and the SP town are trying to find the best location for the install.

I guess these stations that Tesla is paying for don't work for other electric cars, but once a site is wired I guess additional plug-in parking spots can be made for other EVs. Seems like a great way to get preferred parking at a ski area.

 

[crgildart]

TL/DR... How does really cold weather impact Tesla performance? Are batteries still weakened by super cold temps??

 

[scott43]

I'm not an apologist here. Model X looks like an expensive diversion of resources so far, and many analysts think now was not a great time for Tesla to bail out Solar City, given its own large capital requirements. I love the car, but the stock is way too risky for my taste.

I think your posts are very well balanced and intelligent Tony. I think there were some heads turned with Solar City, particularly given there is a personal relationship between the two CEO's. Might be a little suspect. However, the stock is still doing relatively well. And ultimately it's up to the shareholders to vote on those things with their cash. It's a neat show to watch, The Musk Show.

 

[TonyC]

Tesla has a charging station in Kamloops B.C. and wants to put one in at Sun Peaks

I would be shocked if Tesla puts a supercharger at Sun Peaks, given the skeletal nature of the network in western Canada now. You can basically drive on the supercharger network from Vancouver to Calgary/Edmonton via Kelowna or Kamloops and that's about it. No N/S connections coming up from Spokane or Montana yet, no Yellowhead Hwy, no Hwy3.

Sun Peaks is probably getting a destination charger in one of the hotels. This will allow overnight charging at a rate of ~27mi per hour like home charging. These can be Tesla specific chargers; we just noticed but did not use two of them at the Del Coronado hotel in San Diego on Tuesday.

The superchargers are 400 volt/400amp direct current, can charge up to 150 miles in a half hour if starting from a low level. It's a fairly major production building superchargers, getting permits, getting set up with the local utility for that much power draw, etc.

TL/DR... How does really cold weather impact Tesla performance? Are batteries still weakened by super cold temps??

Absolutely. According to the guidance chart I'm using temps of 15F will consume 25% more range than the 60-90F temps I've been driving since I got the car. By extrapolation it's likely 40% more range at 0F. Using the space heating inside the car will add to the problem. Tesla Forum users advise to use the seat heaters more than the space heating if you're close on range.

I'm speaking to the Autopilot issues because I've used it and understand what it can and can't do, much better than media people who have never driven a Tesla. Think of how the media handles ski related issues. Personal experience with the cold weather issues will have to wait until a November/December Mammoth trip. I have better ski car for very adverse weather, and will probably use it if expecting temps <15F at Mammoth, which means <40F during most of the high desert drive there. I have no doubt the Tesla could handle that trip fine in terms of safety with its AWD, but the the shorter range would lengthen the supercharge stops and total travel time.

Owners living in cold climates will have minimal issues with local driving, but should be aware that longer road trips will take more time than during the warmer months even when the roads are clean.

 

[DanoT]

According to an article that I just googled there is only one Tesla Supercharger (6 Bay, 140Kw?) in Canada in Squamish on the way to Whistler with another Supercharger 200kms to the south in Mount Vernon, WA on I-5. Whistler and Vancouver have several 20Kw high power hotel chargers which according to the article deliver 94kms/hour of charging.

 

[TonyC]

The Squamish supercharger easily takes care of Vancouver day/weekend trips to Whistler. I would guess that there are a fair number of Teslas in Vancouver but that they are still rare elsewhere in western Canada. I have driven my Cayenne from SoCal to Revelstoke twice but the Tesla will not be making that trip.

It costs Tesla $200,000+ to install a supercharger. There is demand for more density in regions like mine with lots of owners. There are also still some major gaps in the US Interstate network, notably from Tucson to San Antonio via I-10 and Dallas via I-20. There are no superchargers in Canada between Calgary and Barrie just north of Toronto.

It is also possible that Tesla believes the supercharger network is fairly filled in as far as what its existing North America user base needs and is devoting less cash to it vs. other priorities like the Model 3, Europe and China. Tesla's website has a map of superchargers expected by the end of 2016, and I expect them to fall well short of that map. The I-10/I-20 gap is supposed to be filled but only 2 of the 13 locations needed have been permitted so far. https://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

Not that much is shown for Canada on that "expected 2016 map."
1) I-94 across North Dakota is filled in with a spur up to Winnipeg.
2) Calgary is connected south to I-15 in Montana
3) Calgary and Edmonton get superchargers in town while now there is only the connecting supercharger in Red Deer.
4) 3 more superchargers north of Toronto. That gets you halfway around Lake Huron.
5) A supercharger in Quebec City and one more downstream past Le Massif.

I'll bet at least 3/4 of Canadian Tesla owners live in the Toronto or Vancouver metro areas.

 

[skibob]

After putting down our deposit, we JUST received a thank you letter (not) hand-signed by Elon. Enclosed was a photo (er, "artist's rendering") of the car.

So, given that it took 4+ mos to send this out, I am little skeptical about the production schedule . . .

 

[TonyC]

So, given that it took 4+ mos to send this out, I am little skeptical about the production schedule . . .

I am too. But Tesla by all indications has taken to heart the "hubris" (that's a direct quote from Elon) involved in the design and 2-year delayed rollout of the Model X.

My SWAG has been a handful of of deliveries at the end of 2017 (like the 6 X's delivered 9/30/15) with high volume deliveries by mid-2018. But there have been some comments that Tesla is serious about meeting its announced timetable this time. And a lot of comments about, "We're not going have the complexity of the Model X this time. We want to keep Model 3 simple and straightforward."

Presumably some of you read this last press release last week. https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux It's easy to see why some people think Tesla might get overextended with so many ambitious projects. Getting Model 3 right should be the absolute #1 priority now IMHO.

The Gigafactory opening is this Friday July 29 (maybe Philpug should try to crash the party). The Tesla employees here expect some more specific announcements about Tesla's direction then.

 

[TonyC]

There are some recent noteworthy Tesla developments.

1) Third quarter sales were 24,500 cars, which may put Tesla on track to meet its 2016 goal of 80,000 sales. http://www.latimes.com/business/aut...y-production-3q-musk-20161002-snap-story.html The sales push was not without controversy, as many "inventory cars" were significantly discounted. P90D's were discounted as much as 20K off their 130-140K list prices. The stores probably had too many on site as demos, and demand from those who want the latest and greatest probably fell due to the August introduction of the P100D https://www.tesla.com/blog/new-tesla-model-s-now-quickest-production-car-world. The other discounting occurred on the lowest price cars, where many buyers of 75's paid the list price of the 60, getting the $8,500 software upgrade for free. Some of the stores were aggressive in the 3rd quarter sales push, so Elon pushed back at the end of the quarter about the longstanding no discount policy: http://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-orders-tesla-stores-not-to-discount-cars-to-h-1787220998. Some have taken a cynical interpretation of this pushback occurring at the very end of the quarter once the sales push had been a success.

2) Last week we found out there is another reason Tesla wanted to clear out as much inventory as possible during the 3rd quarter. All Teslas being manufactured since last week have upgraded autopilot hardware which will ultimately be capable of full self driving autonomy. As with my Autopilot 1.0, buyers have the option whether or not to activate the software. Autopilot 1.0 had a front facing camera, a rear backup camera and ultrasonic sensors and cost $2,500 for me to activate ($500 more if activated after delivery). The new hardware has a CPU 40x as powerful as Autopilot 1.0, 3 front facing cameras, the rear camera, 2 side camera in the B-pillars, two rear-facing side cameras in the logo under the rear view mirrors, the backup cameras and improved ultrasonic sensors. This article has links to more details: https://electrek.co/2016/10/19/tesla-fully-autonomous-self-driving-car/. Buyers can activate 4 cameras and Enhanced Autopilot for $5,000 or all 8 cameras and ultimate full self driving autonomy for $8,000. Both tiers cost $1,000 more to activate after delivery. The Enhanced Autopilot software will first be active by the end of 2016. Full self driving will take well over a year of software development, AI learning from the cars on the road and likely regulatory approval as well. There are some questions whether prospective Model 3 buyers will be as willing to pay $5,000 or $8,000 for a better autopilot as nearly all Model S/X buyers were willing to pay $2,500 for the first-gen autopilot. https://electrek.co/2016/10/20/tesl...it-8000-of-autopilot-hardware-in-a-35000-car/. I'd be interested how Rachel and BravoSarah feel about this.

3) The Consumer Reports annual reliability survey is out today. The headline is negative, but that's due to the serious quality control problems as Model X was introduced in 2016. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...eports-rips-tesla-lousy-reliability/92712118/ Model S reliability is now rated average, so Model S is back on CR's recommended list. Perhaps you don't want to be too near the front of the line of Model 3 orders. However, I've read several places that employees and existing Tesla owners will get the first Model 3's.

4) The supercharger in Jackson Hole opened last week, which makes this area much more accessible along with the West Yellowstone charger that opened in May. Nonetheless we will be driving the Cayenne not the Tesla to Jackson for next August's total solar eclipse. http://www.greatamericaneclipse.com/ The eclipse is total along a ~60-mile wide band from Oregon to South Carolina. Check out the reference above and see why this is a not to be missed event.

 

[Jwrags]

@TonyC , I enjoy your Tesla updates, especially since we are on the waiting list for a Model 3. Of interest, they just put a supercharger in Seaside, Oregon on the coast. Must be so the Portlanders can take their Teslas to the beach for the day or weekend and be able to recharge it. Depending on where you are in Portland, it is about 90 miles, +/-, so it would be tight to make it round trip without a charge.

 

[TonyC]

https://supercharge.info/ is regularly updated for open, under construction and permitted superchargers. The Pacific Coast seems to have been a 2016 priority. Eureka, Crescent City, Lincoln City and Seaside all opened this summer, and Bandon and Aberdeen are under construction. Interior Northwest looks like lower priority so far.

I'm still interested in how you Model 3 orderers feel about paying $8,000 for the upgraded autopilot potential. I understand why it's much more expensive than my early version, but I'm curious if there will be resistance to the higher price tag, particularly in a lower priced car.

 

[Jwrags]

I doubt I would be willing to pay for the upgrade. While I am sure it will be very good, I am just not sure about the utility of it at this time. If the majority of people on the road were using self driving cars then I might feel comfortable. I'm not so sure about its use around town. Another factor is it will be my wife's car and I know she would never use it. I can hardly get her to use cruise control

Sounds as if they have put the superchargers up 101 so you can either travel up I-5 or up the coast. I wish they would put one somewhere between Portland and Bend, as that is calling it close on miles, depending on your model. The one in Sandy is too close to Portland. There is one at Detroit Lake, but that is not my usual route to central Oregon. I guess I will have to change that.

 

[TonyC]

Liz was not much of a cruise control user, but traffic adaptive cruise control is usable much more often on metro area freeways. Also, you better get used to using cruise control for long distance Tesla travel because it's more efficient for extending range. Good news for you is that non-autopilot cars still have adaptive cruise control.

The Autosteer is most helpful in congested road/stop and go situations where it's much more relaxing not to have hands on the wheel if you're crawling along at low speed. I realize this is a more useful feature in metro L.A. than less congested regions. A sensible compromise is to take the $5,000 enhanced Autopilot and wait and see on the full self driving capability, which is probably what's necessary for automated driving around town. The latter will cost $4,000 vs. $3,000 after delivery but is likely still 2+ years away. This technology is advancing much faster than most of us anticipated, so that's why Tesla is installing all the hardware now even though it will probably take those 2+ years to develop the software.

The Bend situation is an example of the supercharger network being more skeletal in less populated areas. A fully charged base level Model 3 should be able to drive from a home in Portland to Bend without a recharge. But Bend south toward California or east toward Idaho would be problematic. Depending upon your likely road trip routes, you may want to consider upgrading to a larger battery. In my case the 90D battery allows me to drive from home to Lone Pine or Harris Ranch without stopping on a full charge. In California this is just a speed/convenience factor as I'm skipping chargers at intermediate locations, but in some areas of the country it may be more critical.

One factor in favor of range for Oregonians is that Oregon has the most stringent speed enforcement in the West. I would not be using 80MPH on spreadsheet range estimates there as I do for many cases.

 

[DanoT]

One thing about Tesla is that they seem very good at pushing the technology envelope and presumably bringing the rest of the auto industry with them. What is to me just as impressive is that they are doing much of what they do without first proving the viability of their business model.

Elon Musk strikes me as a successful risk taker whose company may fail financially bur he doesn't seem to care because he knows that in the worst case scenario one of the big auto industry players will scoop up Tesla and Musk's innovations will still survive.

I think all those folks who support and promote public transit and want to see cars off the road are going to grow to hate Elon Musk and Tesla.

 

[TonyC]

in the worst case scenario one of the big auto industry players will scoop up Tesla and Musk's innovations will still survive.

IMHO it will be Apple or Google that does the scooping up if Tesla gets overextended.

 

[DanoT]

IMHO it will be Apple or Google that does the scooping up if Tesla gets overextended.

Probably true, but that would really only be the second worst scenario, the worst case is being scooped up by an auto industry big player.

 

[TonyC]

Most of the auto industry big players and especially the dealers want the EV business to fail. Bob Lutz, who was key in developing the Volt, has been a long time Tesla naysayer and still thinks Tesla will go bankrupt. https://electrek.co/2016/10/26/tesl...by-gm-bob-lutz-again-misinformation-earnings/

Apple is sitting on mountains of cash and was considering an electric car venture of its own. They would pounce if Tesla falters and the stock becomes cheap.

 

[Jack skis]

From the Denver Post: "...four Level 2 electric car charging spaces at the entrance of the Beeler parking lot ... can be scheduled by using a free phone app."
Get the app at Copper Colorado,com according to the article. Might be useful if you want to cruise up there in your Tesla.

 

[Don in Morrison]

I think all those folks who support and promote public transit and want to see cars off the road are going to grow to hate Elon Musk and Tesla

The charging infrastructure is being built without a way to collect the equivalent of a gas tax. There are politicians who would love to phase out gasoline powered cars and replace them with electrics so they could fulfill their fantasy of charging everyone a mileage tax that would be paid when you register your car. So instead of paying a few bucks at the pump every time you refuel, you end up paying several hundred dollars as a lump sum at registration time. The social engineers will love this because it would discourage driving in favor of public transit in order to reduce the mileage tax.

Right now electrics are off the hook for helping to support the roads, but when they become numerous enough, there will be a demand that they pay their share of road maintenance, and the politicians will go straight to the mileage tax rather than try to retrofit the charging infrastructure to collect it. They will claim the mileage tax is a bonus because it will discourage driving, and even car ownership.

 

[Jack skis]

In hindsight, in my post #58 it would have been helpful it I'd mentioned that the charging stations were at Copper Mountain.